Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montenegro win with a probability of 63.92%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Lithuania had a probability of 13.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montenegro win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (13.59%) and 1-2 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.31%), while for a Lithuania win it was 1-0 (5.8%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood.