Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Czech Republic win with a probability of 42.76%. A draw had a probability of 29.3% and a win for Montenegro had a probability of 27.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Czech Republic win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.7%) and 1-2 (8.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.22%), while for a Montenegro win it was 1-0 (10.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Czech Republic would win this match.