Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lebanon win with a probability of 42.24%. A win for Jordan had a probability of 29.91% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lebanon win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.43%) and 2-0 (8.1%). The likeliest Jordan win was 0-1 (10.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.04%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lebanon would win this match.