Asian Cup

Asian Cup | Group Stage

Jan 12, 2024 at 4pm UK

Lusail Iconic Stadium

Qatar
3 - 0
Lebanon

Ali (6', 56'), Afif (45', 90+6')
Alaaeldin (86'), Ro-Ro (90')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Haidar (51'), Srour (80')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Asian Cup clash between Qatar and Lebanon, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Qatar

All competitions

Last Game: Qatar 1-2 Jordan
Friday, January 5 at 4pm in International Friendlies

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Qatar	0	0	0
2	China	0	0	0
3	Lebanon	0	0	0
4	Tajikistan	0	0	0

Lebanon

All competitions

Last Game: Saudi Arabia 1-0 Lebanon
Thursday, January 4 at 1.30pm in International Friendlies

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Qatar	0	0	0
2	China	0	0	0
3	Lebanon	0	0	0
4	Tajikistan	0	0	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Qatar win with a probability of 40.44%. A win for Lebanon had a probability of 33.41% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Qatar win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.63%) and 2-0 (6.97%). The likeliest Lebanon win was 0-1 (8.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.43%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Qatar would win this match.

Result
Qatar	Draw	Lebanon
40.44%	26.14%	33.41%

Both teams to score 53.31%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.84%

51.16%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.99%

73%

Qatar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.07%

24.93%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.44%

59.56%

Lebanon Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.01%

28.99%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.12%

64.88%

Score Analysis

Qatar 40.43%

Lebanon 33.41%

Draw 26.14%

Qatar	Draw	Lebanon
1-0 @ 10.03% 2-1 @ 8.63% 2-0 @ 6.97% 3-1 @ 4% 3-0 @ 3.23% 3-2 @ 2.48% 4-1 @ 1.39% 4-0 @ 1.12% Other @ 2.59% Total : 40.43%	1-1 @ 12.43% 0-0 @ 7.23% 2-2 @ 5.35% 3-3 @ 1.02% Other @ 0.12% Total : 26.14%	0-1 @ 8.95% 1-2 @ 7.7% 0-2 @ 5.54% 1-3 @ 3.18% 0-3 @ 2.29% 2-3 @ 2.21% 1-4 @ 0.98% Other @ 2.57% Total : 33.41%