Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Qatar win with a probability of 37.02%. A win for Iraq had a probability of 32.93% and a draw had a probability of 30%.
The most likely scoreline for a Qatar win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.3%) and 2-0 (7.28%). The likeliest Iraq win was 0-1 (12.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.49%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood.