Asian Cup

Asian Cup | Group Stage

Jan 22, 2024 at 3pm UK

Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium

Tajikistan
2 - 1
Lebanon

Mabatshoev (45+5'), Umarbaev (80'), Khamrokulov (90+2')
Jurabaev (27'), Panshanbe (90+7'), Khayloev (90+12')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Jradi (47')
Matar (77'), Al Zain (90+4')
Al Zein (56')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's Asian Cup clash between Tajikistan and Lebanon, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Tajikistan

All competitions

Asian Cup

Last Game: Tajikistan 0-1 Qatar
Wednesday, January 17 at 2.30pm in Asian Cup

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Qatar	2	4	6
2	China	2	0	2
3	Tajikistan	2	-1	1
4	Lebanon	2	-3	1

Lebanon

All competitions

Asian Cup

Last Game: Lebanon 0-0 China
Wednesday, January 17 at 11.30am in Asian Cup

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Qatar	2	4	6
2	China	2	0	2
3	Tajikistan	2	-1	1
4	Lebanon	2	-3	1

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tajikistan win with a probability of 38.49%. A win for Lebanon had a probability of 33.41% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Tajikistan win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.02%) and 2-0 (7.2%). The likeliest Lebanon win was 0-1 (10.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.17%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Tajikistan would win this match.

Result
Tajikistan	Draw	Lebanon
38.49% ( -9.1)	28.09% ( 1.28)	33.41% ( 7.82)

Both teams to score 47.29% (

0.22)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

41.23% (

-1.59)

58.77% (

1.59)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

20.71% (

-1.25)

79.3% (

1.25)

Tajikistan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.4% (

-5.53)

29.6% (

5.53)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.37% (

-7.29)

65.63% (

7.29)

Lebanon Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.18% (

5.19)

32.82% (

-5.19)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.61% (

5.39)

69.39% (

-5.38)

Score Analysis

Tajikistan 38.49%

Lebanon 33.41%

Draw 28.09%

Tajikistan	Draw	Lebanon
1-0 @ 11.82% ( -1.2) 2-1 @ 8.02% ( -0.96) 2-0 @ 7.2% ( -2.08) 3-1 @ 3.26% ( -1.01) 3-0 @ 2.92% ( -1.48) 3-2 @ 1.81% ( -0.25) 4-1 @ 0.99% ( -0.53) Other @ 2.46% Total : 38.49%	1-1 @ 13.17% ( 0.57) 0-0 @ 9.72% ( 0.57) 2-2 @ 4.47% ( 0.13) Other @ 0.73% Total : 28.09%	0-1 @ 10.82% ( 1.97) 1-2 @ 7.34% ( 1.24) 0-2 @ 6.03% ( 1.75) 1-3 @ 2.73% ( 0.76) 0-3 @ 2.24% ( 0.86) 2-3 @ 1.66% ( 0.26) Other @ 2.6% Total : 33.41%