Welsh Premier League | Gameweek 4
Feb 22, 2025 at 2.30pm UK
The Oval

Caernarfon
3 - 2
Pen-y-Bont

Davies (7', 51'), Hudson (72')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Crole (57', 63')
Owen (30')
Coverage of the Welsh Premier League clash between Caernarfon Town and Pen-y-Bont.

Form, Standings, Stats

Caernarfon Town

All competitions
Last Game: Caernarfon 0-1 New Saints
Tuesday, February 11 at 7.45pm in Welsh Premier League

Pen-y-Bont

All competitions
Last Game: New Saints 4-0 Pen-y-Bont
Saturday, February 8 at 12.15pm in Welsh Premier League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pen-y-Bont win with a probability of 52.77%. A win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 24.52% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Pen-y-Bont win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.78%) and 0-2 (8.14%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win was 2-1 (6.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.5%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood.

Result
Caernarfon TownDrawPen-y-Bont
24.52% (-0.646 -0.65)22.71% (0.030999999999999 0.03)52.77% (0.612 0.61)
Both teams to score 58.84% (-0.831 -0.83)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.79% (-0.779 -0.78)41.21% (0.77500000000001 0.78)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.4% (-0.795 -0.8)63.6% (0.79199999999999 0.79)
Caernarfon Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.76% (-0.932 -0.93)30.24% (0.929 0.93)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.59% (-1.127 -1.13)66.41% (1.124 1.12)
Pen-y-Bont Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.34% (-0.066000000000003 -0.07)15.66% (0.063000000000001 0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
55.3% (-0.123 -0.12)44.7% (0.12 0.12)
Score Analysis
    Caernarfon Town 24.52%
    Pen-y-Bont 52.77%
    Draw 22.71%
Caernarfon TownDrawPen-y-Bont
2-1 @ 6.28% (-0.117 -0.12)
1-0 @ 5.66% (0.053999999999999 0.05)
2-0 @ 3.39% (-0.055 -0.06)
3-1 @ 2.5% (-0.113 -0.11)
3-2 @ 2.32% (-0.11 -0.11)
3-0 @ 1.35% (-0.058 -0.06)
Other @ 3.01%
Total : 24.52%
1-1 @ 10.5% (0.08 0.08)
2-2 @ 5.82% (-0.121 -0.12)
0-0 @ 4.74% (0.165 0.17)
3-3 @ 1.43% (-0.072 -0.07)
Other @ 0.22%
Total : 22.71%
1-2 @ 9.74% (0.049999999999999 0.05)
0-1 @ 8.78% (0.286 0.29)
0-2 @ 8.14% (0.248 0.25)
1-3 @ 6.02% (0.017 0.02)
0-3 @ 5.03% (0.142 0.14)
2-3 @ 3.6% (-0.083 -0.08)
1-4 @ 2.79% (0.00099999999999989 0)
0-4 @ 2.33% (0.06 0.06)
2-4 @ 1.67% (-0.042 -0.04)
1-5 @ 1.03% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 3.65%
Total : 52.77%

Head to Head
Nov 2, 2024 2.30pm
Gameweek 15
Caernarfon
1-5
Pen-y-Bont
Mendes (68')
John Williams (21'), Owen (74')
Venables (22'), Wood (45+1', 65'), Kircough (72'), Crole (82')
Sep 7, 2024 2.30pm
Gameweek 6
Pen-y-Bont
2-0
Caernarfon
Reffell (40'), Green (87')
Przybek (85')

Downey (53')
May 18, 2024 2.45pm
Caernarfon
3-1
Pen-y-Bont
Lloyd (20'), Clarke (26' pen.), Bradley (37')
Gosset (44'), Donohue (72')
Reynolds (90+1')
Harling (29'), Reffell (72')
Nov 4, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 15
Caernarfon
2-4
Pen-y-Bont
Davies (52'), Bradley (90+3')
Donohue (14'), Williams (45+2'), Mooney (86')
Venables (7', 64', 90+1'), Jefferies (25')
Jones (10'), Reffell (65')
Sep 16, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 7
Pen-y-Bont
3-2
Caernarfon
Venables (45+2', 76'), John Williams (90+11' og.)
Pennock (31'), Yorwerth (66'), Little (68')
Richard Williams (31'), Mooney (90+8')
Richard Williams (11'), Clarke (79')