Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pen-y-Bont win with a probability of 44.77%. A win for Connah's Quay Nomads had a probability of 30.61% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pen-y-Bont win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.08%) and 2-0 (7.22%). The likeliest Connah's Quay Nomads win was 1-2 (7.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.55%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Pen-y-Bont would win this match.