Welsh Premier League | Gameweek 6
Sep 7, 2024 at 2.30pm UK
Bryntirion Park

Pen-y-Bont
2 - 0
Caernarfon

Reffell (40'), Green (87')
Przybek (85')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Downey (53')
Coverage of the Welsh Premier League clash between Pen-y-Bont and Caernarfon Town.

Form, Standings, Stats

Pen-y-Bont

All competitions
Welsh Premier League
Last Game: Bala Town 1-2 Pen-y-Bont
Saturday, August 31 at 2.30pm in Welsh Premier League

Caernarfon Town

All competitions
Welsh Premier League
Last Game: Caernarfon 1-2 Cardiff MU
Saturday, August 31 at 2.30pm in Welsh Premier League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pen-y-Bont win with a probability of 68.96%. A draw had a probability of 17.6% and a win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 13.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Pen-y-Bont win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.64%) and 1-0 (8.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.13%), while for a Caernarfon Town win it was 1-2 (3.86%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Pen-y-Bont in this match.

Result
Pen-y-BontDrawCaernarfon Town
68.96% (-0.30800000000001 -0.31)17.64% (0.15 0.15)13.4% (0.156 0.16)
Both teams to score 55.6% (-0.103 -0.1)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
64.5% (-0.354 -0.35)35.49% (0.349 0.35)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
42.46% (-0.392 -0.39)57.54% (0.38699999999999 0.39)
Pen-y-Bont Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
90.67% (-0.166 -0.17)9.32% (0.161 0.16)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
68.55% (-0.38999999999999 -0.39)31.44% (0.385 0.39)
Caernarfon Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
61.32% (-0.0050000000000026 -0.01)38.68% (0.0020000000000024 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
24.58%75.42% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Score Analysis
    Pen-y-Bont 68.96%
    Caernarfon Town 13.4%
    Draw 17.64%
Pen-y-BontDrawCaernarfon Town
2-0 @ 10.15% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
2-1 @ 9.64% (0.026999999999999 0.03)
1-0 @ 8.56% (0.087999999999999 0.09)
3-0 @ 8.03% (-0.037000000000001 -0.04)
3-1 @ 7.63% (-0.035 -0.04)
4-0 @ 4.76% (-0.057 -0.06)
4-1 @ 4.52% (-0.055000000000001 -0.06)
3-2 @ 3.62% (-0.017 -0.02)
5-0 @ 2.26% (-0.045 -0.04)
4-2 @ 2.15% (-0.026 -0.03)
5-1 @ 2.15% (-0.042 -0.04)
5-2 @ 1.02% (-0.02 -0.02)
Other @ 4.48%
Total : 68.96%
1-1 @ 8.13% (0.082000000000001 0.08)
2-2 @ 4.58% (0.012 0.01)
0-0 @ 3.61% (0.063 0.06)
3-3 @ 1.15% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 17.64%
1-2 @ 3.86% (0.039 0.04)
0-1 @ 3.43% (0.059 0.06)
0-2 @ 1.63% (0.028 0.03)
2-3 @ 1.45% (0.004 0)
1-3 @ 1.22% (0.012 0.01)
Other @ 1.81%
Total : 13.4%

Head to Head
May 18, 2024 2.45pm
Caernarfon
3-1
Pen-y-Bont
Lloyd (20'), Clarke (26' pen.), Bradley (37')
Gosset (44'), Donohue (72')
Reynolds (90+1')
Harling (29'), Reffell (72')
Nov 4, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 15
Caernarfon
2-4
Pen-y-Bont
Davies (52'), Bradley (90+3')
Donohue (14'), Williams (45+2'), Mooney (86')
Venables (7', 64', 90+1'), Jefferies (25')
Jones (10'), Reffell (65')
Sep 16, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 7
Pen-y-Bont
3-2
Caernarfon
Venables (45+2', 76'), John Williams (90+11' og.)
Pennock (31'), Yorwerth (66'), Little (68')
Richard Williams (31'), Mooney (90+8')
Richard Williams (11'), Clarke (79')
Jan 7, 2023 12.45pm
Gameweek 6
Pen-y-Bont
5-1
Caernarfon
Reffell (9'), Reynolds (17'), Yorwerth (32'), Georgievsky (72'), Tweedy (82')
Cartwright (78')
Nov 5, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 14
Caernarfon
0-2
Pen-y-Bont
Wood (22'), Reynolds (70')