Welsh Premier League | Gameweek 5
Aug 31, 2024 at 2.30pm UK
The Oval

Caernarfon
1 - 2
Cardiff MU

Lloyd (19' pen.)
Owen (22'), Lloyd (87')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Clubb (6'), Reynolds (42')
Edwards (67')
Coverage of the Welsh Premier League clash between Caernarfon Town and Cardiff MU.

Form, Standings, Stats

Caernarfon Town

All competitions
Welsh Premier League
Last Game: Caernarfon 0-0 Bala Town
Monday, August 26 at 2.30pm in Welsh Premier League

Cardiff MU

All competitions
Last Game: Cardiff MU 0-0 Haverfordwest
Monday, August 26 at 2.30pm in Welsh Premier League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff MU win with a probability of 46.3%. A win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 29.63% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff MU win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.72%) and 0-2 (7.25%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win was 2-1 (7.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Cardiff MU in this match.

Result
Caernarfon TownDrawCardiff MU
29.63% (-0.030999999999999 -0.03)24.06% (-0.025000000000002 -0.03)46.3% (0.058 0.06)
Both teams to score 58.64% (0.067 0.07)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
56.52% (0.097000000000001 0.1)43.47% (-0.096000000000004 -0.1)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
34.13% (0.095999999999997 0.1)65.87% (-0.094999999999999 -0.09)
Caernarfon Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.34% (0.027000000000001 0.03)27.66% (-0.026 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.79% (0.036999999999999 0.04)63.2% (-0.035000000000004 -0.04)
Cardiff MU Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.05% (0.063000000000002 0.06)18.95% (-0.061999999999998 -0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.53% (0.104 0.1)50.46% (-0.103 -0.1)
Score Analysis
    Caernarfon Town 29.63%
    Cardiff MU 46.3%
    Draw 24.06%
Caernarfon TownDrawCardiff MU
2-1 @ 7.2% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
1-0 @ 6.74% (-0.023 -0.02)
2-0 @ 4.33% (-0.012 -0.01)
3-1 @ 3.09%
3-2 @ 2.57% (0.0049999999999999 0)
3-0 @ 1.85% (-0.004 -0)
4-1 @ 0.99%
Other @ 2.87%
Total : 29.63%
1-1 @ 11.2% (-0.020000000000001 -0.02)
2-2 @ 5.99% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
0-0 @ 5.24% (-0.021999999999999 -0.02)
3-3 @ 1.42% (0.006 0.01)
Other @ 0.21%
Total : 24.06%
1-2 @ 9.32% (0.0040000000000013 0)
0-1 @ 8.72% (-0.020000000000001 -0.02)
0-2 @ 7.25% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
1-3 @ 5.17% (0.013 0.01)
0-3 @ 4.02% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
2-3 @ 3.32% (0.01 0.01)
1-4 @ 2.15% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
0-4 @ 1.67% (0.006 0.01)
2-4 @ 1.38% (0.0069999999999999 0.01)
Other @ 3.3%
Total : 46.3%

Head to Head
May 10, 2024 7.45pm
Caernarfon
2-0
Cardiff MU
Williams (86'), Davies (90')
Lloyd (63'), Williams (87')

Craven (48'), McCarthy (55')
Mar 23, 2024 2.30pm
Gameweek 7
Caernarfon
1-2
Cardiff MU
Clarke (84')
Donohue (90+6')
Craven (5'), Jones (13')
Soady (45+4')
Feb 10, 2024 2.30pm
Gameweek 2
Cardiff MU
2-2
Caernarfon
Price (24'), Evans (57')
Lewis (17'), Clubb (90+2'), McCarthy (90+6')
Jones (70')
Bradley (18'), Dafydd (84')
Davies (10'), John Williams (74')
Jan 13, 2024 5.15pm
Gameweek 22
Cardiff MU
2-2
Caernarfon
Lewis (70'), Evans (73')
Davies (9'), Gosset (87')
Oct 21, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 13
Caernarfon
5-1
Cardiff MU
Bradley (4', 37', 58'), Davies (49'), Clarke (69')
Donohue (52' og.)
Craven (32'), H (76')
Craven (81')