Welsh Premier League | Gameweek 13
Oct 21, 2023 at 2.30pm UK
The Oval

Caernarfon
5 - 1
Cardiff MU

Bradley (4', 37', 58'), Davies (49'), Clarke (69')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Donohue (52' og.)
Craven (32'), H (76')
Craven (81')
Coverage of the Welsh Premier League clash between Caernarfon Town and Cardiff MU.

Form, Standings, Stats

Caernarfon Town

All competitions
Last Game: Caernarfon 3-0 Aberystwyth
Tuesday, October 17 at 7.45pm in Welsh Premier League

Cardiff MU

All competitions
Last Game: Cardiff MU 2-1 Newtown
Tuesday, October 17 at 7.45pm in Welsh Premier League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff MU win with a probability of 44.12%. A win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 31.21% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff MU win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9%) and 0-2 (7.09%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win was 2-1 (7.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.58%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood.

Result
Caernarfon TownDrawCardiff MU
31.21% (-0.0070000000000014 -0.01)24.67% (0.018999999999998 0.02)44.12% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Both teams to score 57.42% (-0.064 -0.06)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.54% (-0.082000000000001 -0.08)45.47% (0.087000000000003 0.09)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.21% (-0.079999999999998 -0.08)67.8% (0.082999999999998 0.08)
Caernarfon Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.4% (-0.043999999999997 -0.04)27.61% (0.047000000000001 0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.86% (-0.058 -0.06)63.14% (0.061999999999998 0.06)
Cardiff MU Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.32% (-0.037000000000006 -0.04)20.69% (0.041 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.72% (-0.061 -0.06)53.29% (0.064999999999998 0.06)
Score Analysis
    Caernarfon Town 31.21%
    Cardiff MU 44.12%
    Draw 24.67%
Caernarfon TownDrawCardiff MU
2-1 @ 7.45% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
1-0 @ 7.35% (0.017 0.02)
2-0 @ 4.73% (0.0049999999999999 0)
3-1 @ 3.2% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
3-2 @ 2.52% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
3-0 @ 2.03% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-1 @ 1.03% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Other @ 2.9%
Total : 31.21%
1-1 @ 11.58% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-2 @ 5.87% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
0-0 @ 5.71% (0.021999999999999 0.02)
3-3 @ 1.32% (-0.006 -0.01)
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 24.67%
1-2 @ 9.13% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
0-1 @ 9% (0.022 0.02)
0-2 @ 7.09% (0.008 0.01)
1-3 @ 4.79% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
0-3 @ 3.72%
2-3 @ 3.08% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
1-4 @ 1.89% (-0.0050000000000001 -0.01)
0-4 @ 1.47% (-0.002 -0)
2-4 @ 1.22% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
Other @ 2.74%
Total : 44.12%

Head to Head
Oct 29, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 13
Cardiff MU
0-3
Caernarfon
Donohue (62' pen.), O'Rourke (72', 89')
Aug 27, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 3
Caernarfon
5-1
Cardiff MU
Wynne (3', 25'), Thomas (42', 88'), Lang (73' og.)
Edwards (80')
Evans (30')
Chubb (73'), Price (82')
May 7, 2022 5.15pm
Caernarfon
1-0
Cardiff MU
Hayes (45+1')
Donohue (63'), Thomas (72')

Chubb (78')
Apr 15, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 8
Caernarfon
2-0
Cardiff MU
Mendes (31'), Harrison (67')

Craven (43'), Roscrow (68')
Mar 5, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 1
Cardiff MU
0-0
Caernarfon
Price (84')