Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff MU win with a probability of 42.73%. A win for Barry Town United had a probability of 30.2% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff MU win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.67%) and 2-0 (7.94%). The likeliest Barry Town United win was 0-1 (9.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.81%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cardiff MU would win this match.