Welsh Premier League | Gameweek 11

Oct 7, 2023 at 2.30pm UK

G.F. Grigg Latham Park

Newtown
4 - 0
Caernarfon

Williams (40', 45+3', 71'), Sears (85')
Evans (51'), Sutton (57'), Cowans (73'), Sears (77'), Mills-Evans (89'), Jones (90+3')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Donohue (90+5')

Coverage of the Welsh Premier League clash between Newtown AFC and Caernarfon Town.

Form, Standings, Stats

Newtown AFC

All competitions

Last Game: Newtown 1-0 Bala Town
Saturday, September 30 at 2.30pm in Welsh Premier League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Caernarfon Town

All competitions

Last Game: Barry 0-3 Caernarfon
Saturday, September 30 at 2.30pm in Welsh Premier League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newtown AFC win with a probability of 46.5%. A win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 29.81% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Newtown AFC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.24%) and 2-0 (7.03%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win was 1-2 (7.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.9%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newtown AFC would win this match.

Result
Newtown AFC	Draw	Caernarfon Town
46.5% ( -1.39)	23.68% ( 0.38)	29.81% ( 1.02)

Both teams to score 60.09% (

-0.63)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.39% (

-1.14)

41.61% (

1.14)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.99% (

-1.16)

64.01% (

1.16)

Newtown AFC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.87% (

-0.98)

18.13% (

0.98)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.91% (

-1.7)

49.09% (

1.71)

Caernarfon Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.4% (

0.11)

26.61% (

-0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.17% (

0.14)

61.83% (

-0.14)

Score Analysis

Newtown AFC 46.5%

Caernarfon Town 29.81%

Draw 23.68%

Newtown AFC	Draw	Caernarfon Town
2-1 @ 9.31% ( -0.09) 1-0 @ 8.24% ( 0.16) 2-0 @ 7.03% ( -0.09) 3-1 @ 5.3% ( -0.23) 3-0 @ 4% ( -0.18) 3-2 @ 3.51% ( -0.14) 4-1 @ 2.26% ( -0.17) 4-0 @ 1.71% ( -0.14) 4-2 @ 1.5% ( -0.11) Other @ 3.64% Total : 46.5%	1-1 @ 10.9% ( 0.24) 2-2 @ 6.16% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 4.82% ( 0.24) 3-3 @ 1.55% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.24% Total : 23.68%	1-2 @ 7.22% ( 0.18) 0-1 @ 6.39% ( 0.34) 0-2 @ 4.23% ( 0.24) 1-3 @ 3.19% ( 0.09) 2-3 @ 2.72% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.87% ( 0.11) 1-4 @ 1.06% ( 0.03) 2-4 @ 0.9% Other @ 2.25% Total : 29.81%