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UEFA Conference League

Conference League | Second Qualifying Round | 2nd Leg
Aug 1, 2024 at 6pm UK
The Oval

Caernarfon
0 - 5
Legia


John Williams (15'), Mendes (26'), Sears (48'), Owen (90')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Kapustka (46'), Jedrzejczyk (48'), Pekhart (54'), Nsame (72'), Barcia (83')
Jedrzejczyk (43')
Coverage of the Conference League Second Qualifying Round clash between Caernarfon Town and Legia Warsaw.

Form, Standings, Stats

Caernarfon Town

All competitions
Europa Conference League
Last Game: Legia 6-0 Caernarfon
Thursday, July 25 at 7.45pm in Europa Conference League

Legia Warsaw

All competitions
Europa Conference League
Last Game: Korona Kielce 0-1 Legia
Sunday, July 28 at 7.15pm in Polish Ekstraklasa

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Legia Warsaw win with a probability of 63.24%. A draw had a probability of 20.2% and a win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 16.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Legia Warsaw win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.93%) and 0-1 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.45%), while for a Caernarfon Town win it was 2-1 (4.61%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Legia Warsaw would win this match.

Result
Caernarfon TownDrawLegia Warsaw
16.6% (-0.519 -0.52)20.16% (-0.368 -0.37)63.24% (0.889 0.89)
Both teams to score 54.71% (0.158 0.16)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
59.41% (0.749 0.75)40.59% (-0.746 -0.75)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
37.03% (0.765 0.77)62.98% (-0.762 -0.76)
Caernarfon Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.33% (-0.164 -0.16)37.67% (0.166 0.17)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.55% (-0.158 -0.16)74.45% (0.16199999999999 0.16)
Legia Warsaw Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.78% (0.48399999999999 0.48)12.22% (-0.48 -0.48)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
62.09% (1 1)37.92% (-0.997 -1)
Score Analysis
    Caernarfon Town 16.6%
    Legia Warsaw 63.24%
    Draw 20.16%
Caernarfon TownDrawLegia Warsaw
2-1 @ 4.61% (-0.115 -0.12)
1-0 @ 4.5% (-0.177 -0.18)
2-0 @ 2.19% (-0.097 -0.1)
3-2 @ 1.58% (-0.017 -0.02)
3-1 @ 1.5% (-0.044 -0.04)
Other @ 2.22%
Total : 16.6%
1-1 @ 9.45% (-0.192 -0.19)
2-2 @ 4.85% (-0.029999999999999 -0.03)
0-0 @ 4.61% (-0.159 -0.16)
3-3 @ 1.11% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 20.16%
0-2 @ 10.17% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
1-2 @ 9.93% (-0.016 -0.02)
0-1 @ 9.68% (-0.151 -0.15)
0-3 @ 7.13% (0.15 0.15)
1-3 @ 6.96% (0.116 0.12)
0-4 @ 3.75% (0.146 0.15)
1-4 @ 3.66% (0.127 0.13)
2-3 @ 3.4% (0.042 0.04)
2-4 @ 1.78% (0.054 0.05)
0-5 @ 1.57% (0.089 0.09)
1-5 @ 1.54% (0.081 0.08)
Other @ 3.69%
Total : 63.24%

Head to Head
Jul 25, 2024 7.45pm
Second Qualifying Round 1st Leg
Legia
6-0
Caernarfon
Gual (22', 48', 53'), McMullan (44' og.), Kramer (71'), Goncalves (90+3')

Mendes (33'), Mooney (67')