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Belarusian Premier League | Gameweek 10
May 23, 2020 at 6.30pm UK
Vitebsky Central Sport Complex

Vitebsk
1 - 1
Dinamo Minsk

Nicolaescu (19')
Nazarenko (8'), Volkov (42')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Bakhar (5')
Pavlovski (54'), Shvyatsow (61'), Goropevsek (76'), Sukhotskiy (89')

Preview: Vitebsk vs. Dinamo Minsk - prediction, form guide, head to head

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Belarusian top-flight clash between Vitebsk and Dinamo Minsk, including predictions, form guide and head-to-head records.

Vitebsk and Dinamo Minsk go head to head on Saturday evening with just goal difference separating the two teams in the league table.

While the clubs sit in the bottom half of the Belarusian top flight, there is an eight-point gap between them and the relegation zone.


Match preview

FC Smolevichi v FC Dinamo Minsk action shot from the Belarusian Premier League© Reuters

During the early weeks of the campaign, Vitebsk had found themselves as one of the pacesetters, which was somewhat of a surprise after finishing in 13th place last season.

However, four games without a win has resulted in Sergey Yasinsky's team dropping down to 10th position, 10 points adrift of in-form leaders BATE Borisov.

Despite picking up a point at Belshina in their most recent match, it was regarded as a disappointing result with their hosts still without a win in nine games.

Nevertheless, Julio Cesar's late equaliser ensured that Vitebsk will not enter matchday 10 with the worst attacking record in the division.

Just seven strikes have come from nine outings, three of which have come from Ion Nicolaescu, who has recently spent a period on the sidelines.

Dinamo go into this encounter having ended a two-match losing streak with an impressive 1-0 victory over Isloch.

Leonid Kuchuk has witnessed his side fail to put together any kind of consistency this season, although still sitting in mid-table after five defeats from nine will be viewed as a positive.

However, Kuchuk will want to see Evgeni Shikavka return to form as soon as possible with the club's top goalscorer having gone three games without finding the back of the net.

That drop off has played a big part in Dinamo now only occupying a place in the bottom half of the standings, but another win on Saturday will move the club back into contention for the top six.

Vitebsk form: DWLLDD

Dinamo Minsk form: LWWLLW


Head To Head

Since 1996, these two teams have squared off on 46 occasions, with Dinamo claiming 21 victories in comparison to 13 wins for Vitebsk.

However, the home side will be encouraged by their recent record having suffered just one defeat in four matches.

That said, the setback came in last season's corresponding fixture with Dinamo running out 3-1 victors.


Sports Mole Logo

We say: Vitebsk 1-1 Dinamo Minsk

Given their respective form, everything points to a closely-fought battle this weekend. There will be more belief within the Dinamo ranks, but home advantage could help Vitebsk earn a share of the spoils.



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dinamo Minsk win with a probability of 41.37%. A win for Vitebsk had a probability of 32.2% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Dinamo Minsk win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.68%) and 0-2 (7.32%). The likeliest Vitebsk win was 1-0 (9.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.57%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood.


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Brazil's goalkeeper Julio Cesar makes a save during the round of 16 football match between Brazil and Chile at The Mineirao Stadium in Belo Horizonte during the 2014 FIFA World Cup on June 28, 2014
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