Brazilian giants Santos welcome Argentinian outfit San Lorenzo to the Estadio Nacional de Brasilia on Wednesday, in the second leg of their Copa Libertadores third round qualifying tie.
The hosts come into this game with a 3-1 aggregate lead, having picked up an impressive win in Buenos Aires, and look in a strong position to book their place in the group stage.
Match preview
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Santos got off to an excellent start in the first leg in Buenos Aires, as Lucas Braga netted the opener after seven minutes, and Marinho doubled their lead from the penalty spot on the stroke of half time.
Angel Romero then pulled a goal back for San Lorenzo, before Angelo Gabriel came off the bench to net a crucial third goal for the Brazilian giants in the fourth minute of added time to give his side a two-goal advantage going into the second leg.
Ariel Holan's side returned to league action on Sunday, as they drew 0-0 with Botafogo.
Holan will not be too disheartened with that result, considering he rested the majority of his key players with the second leg in mind, clearly prioritising reaching the group stage of the continental competition.
They will look to finish the job they started in the first leg, and kickstart their bid for a fourth Copa Libertadores trophy in the club's history.
However, they take on a San Lorenzo side who will be desperate to overcome the two-goal deficit and qualify for the group stage against the odds.
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Wednesday's visitors qualified for this round with a 3-1 aggregate victory over Universidad de Chile, drawing the first leg 1-1 away from home thanks to Franco Di Santo's late equaliser.
They then sealed the win on home turf, as Di Santo found the net alongside Angel Romero to progress.
However, the 3-1 defeat at the Estadio Pedro Bidegain has severely reduced their chances of progressing to the group stage of the Copa Libertadores, as they look to pick it up for the second time in their history after a triumph in 2014.
Diego Dabove's side will be boosted by their result on their return to domestic action last time out though, as goals from Federico Gattoni, Alexis Sabella, Gabriel Rojas and Franco Troyansky fired them to a 4-2 away win over Platense in the Argentine Primera Division.
Dabove will be hoping that his side can bring the positives from that result on Saturday into the second leg, as they look to overcome the odds and turn the tie on its head.
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Team News
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Holan is unlikely to make too many changes to the Santos side that picked up the 3-1 win in the first leg.
However, 16-year-old forward Angelo Gabriel will be pushing for a starting spot, after he scored the important third goal off the bench in added time.
The majority of players were rested in the recent league draw with Botafogo, but the likes of Lucas Braga, Marinho, Vinicius Balieiro and Luan Peres will all return to the starting side.
San Lorenzo's line will be led by Franco Di Santo, who netted a goal in each leg of the second qualifying round of the Copa Libertadores to fire his side to this stage.
He will be supported by the wide threat of Angel Romero, who netted his second goal of the cup campaign in the home leg against Santos.
Meanwhile, experienced centre-back Fabricio Coloccini has struggled to earn minutes at the back, with Diego Braghieri and Alejandro Donatti forming a solid pairing.
Santos possible starting lineup:
Paulo; Para, Fernandes, Peres, Jonatan; Balieiro, Alison; Marinho, Pirani, Braga; Leonardo
San Lorenzo possible starting lineup:
Devecchi; Herrera, Donatti, Braghieri, Pitton; Palacios, O. Romero; A. Romero, Ramirez, Troyansky; Di Santo
We say: Santos 2-1 San Lorenzo
We see Santos cruising through to the Copa Libertadores group stage with another victory on Wednesday, outclassing the Argentinian outfit on home turf.
With the visitors chasing a victory in order to overturn the tie, Santos should be able to pick holes in an exposed defence on the break.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santos win with a probability of 48.07%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for San Lorenzo had a probability of 25.76%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santos win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.17%) and 2-0 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.39%), while for a San Lorenzo win it was 0-1 (8.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood.
