Major League Soccer

May 11, 2025 at 1.30am UK

CityPark

St Louis City
1 - 2
San Diego

Hiebert (90+1', 90+1')
Ostrak (59'), Ostrak (59'), Baumgartl (90+7'), Baumgartl (90+7')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Iloski (79', 79'), Dreyer (87', 87')
Valakari (38'), Valakari (38'), Verhoeven (90+6'), Verhoeven (90+6')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's MLS Playoffs clash between St Louis City and San Diego, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

St Louis City

All competitions

Last Game: Seattle 4-1 St Louis City
Sunday, May 4 at 3.30am in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

San Diego

All competitions

Last Game: San Diego 5-0 Dallas
Sunday, May 4 at 2.15am in Major League Soccer

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Louis City win with a probability of 49.35%. A win for San Diego had a probability of 26.52% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a St Louis City win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.55%) and 2-0 (8.19%). The likeliest San Diego win was 0-1 (6.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for San Diego in this match.

Result
St Louis City	Draw	San Diego
49.35% ( 0.2)	24.13% ( -0.06)	26.52% ( -0.13)

Both teams to score 56.03% (

0.09)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.16% (

0.16)

45.84% (

-0.16)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.84% (

0.16)

68.16% (

-0.15)

St Louis City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.35% (

0.15)

18.65% (

-0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.04% (

0.24)

49.96% (

-0.23)

San Diego Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.87% (

-0.02)

31.13% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.54% (

-0.02)

67.46% (

0.03)

Score Analysis

St Louis City 49.35%

San Diego 26.52%

Draw 24.13%

St Louis City	Draw	San Diego
1-0 @ 9.75% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 9.55% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 8.19% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 5.35% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 4.58% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 3.12% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 2.25% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 1.92% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 1.31% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.33% Total : 49.35%	1-1 @ 11.37% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 5.8% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 5.58% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.21% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.16% Total : 24.13%	0-1 @ 6.77% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 6.64% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 3.95% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 2.58% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.17% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.54% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.87% Total : 26.52%