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Championship header 2

League Two

Gillingham
League Two | Gameweek 38
Mar 25, 2023 at 3pm UK
MEMS Priestfield Stadium
Carlisle United

Gillingham
1 - 0
Carlisle

Williams (90+4')
FT(HT: 0-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League Two clash between Gillingham and Carlisle United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Gillingham

All competitions
Last Game: Gillingham 2-1 Crewe
Tuesday, March 21 at 7.45pm in League Two

Carlisle United

All competitions
Last Game: Bradford 0-0 Carlisle
Tuesday, March 21 at 7.45pm in League Two

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 41.96%. A win for Gillingham had a probability of 29.49% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.26%) and 1-2 (8.2%). The likeliest Gillingham win was 1-0 (10.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood.

Result
GillinghamDrawCarlisle United
29.49% (-0.010000000000002 -0.01)28.55% (-0.004999999999999 -0)41.96% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Both teams to score 44.82% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
38.72% (0.011999999999993 0.01)61.28% (-0.012999999999998 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
18.8% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)81.2% (-0.010000000000005 -0.01)
Gillingham Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.97%37.03%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.18% (-0.0019999999999989 -0)73.82% (0.0019999999999953 0)
Carlisle United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.17% (0.012999999999991 0.01)28.83% (-0.013999999999999 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.31% (0.017000000000003 0.02)64.69% (-0.016999999999996 -0.02)
Score Analysis
    Gillingham 29.48%
    Carlisle United 41.96%
    Draw 28.54%
GillinghamDrawCarlisle United
1-0 @ 10.6% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-1 @ 6.55% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
2-0 @ 5.27% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-1 @ 2.17%
3-0 @ 1.74% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
3-2 @ 1.35%
Other @ 1.8%
Total : 29.48%
1-1 @ 13.19%
0-0 @ 10.67% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-2 @ 4.07% (0.00099999999999945 0)
Other @ 0.6%
Total : 28.54%
0-1 @ 13.27% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-2 @ 8.26% (0.0019999999999989 0)
1-2 @ 8.2% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-3 @ 3.42% (0.0020000000000002 0)
1-3 @ 3.4% (0.0029999999999997 0)
2-3 @ 1.69% (0.0010000000000001 0)
0-4 @ 1.06% (0.0010000000000001 0)
1-4 @ 1.06% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 1.59%
Total : 41.96%

How you voted: Gillingham vs Carlisle

Gillingham
21.1%
Draw
5.3%
Carlisle United
73.7%
19
Head to Head
Aug 27, 2022 3pm
Carlisle
1-0
Gillingham
Mellish (55')
Gibson (70')

Tutonda (29'), O'Keefe (70')
Dec 19, 2017 7.45pm
Second Round
Carlisle
3-1
Gillingham
Hope (7', 37'), Miller (93')
Liddle (73'), Lambe (86'), Miller (92')
Wagstaff (47')
Clare (25'), Byrne (57'), Parker (66'), Ehmer (77'), O'Neill (91')
Dec 2, 2017 3pm
Second Round
Gillingham
1-1
Carlisle
O'Neill (5')
Clare (40')
Grainger (18' pen.)
Feb 8, 2014 3pm
Carlisle
1-2
Gillingham
Legge (90' og.)
Chimbonda (37'), Redmond (77')
Piggot (44'), McDonald (88')
Nov 2, 2013 3pm
Gillingham
1-0
Carlisle
Kedwell (63')
Legge (26')
Legge (82')

Livesey (10'), Amoo (53'), O'Hanlon (57')
Miller (79')