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Championship header 2

League Two

Crawley Town
League Two | Gameweek 34
Feb 25, 2023 at 3pm UK
The People's Pension Stadium
Carlisle United

Crawley
2 - 5
Carlisle

Oteh (50'), Telford (84')
FT(HT: 0-4)
Senior (15'), Patrick (20'), Moxon (26'), Feeney (38'), Mellish (57')
Coverage of the League Two clash between Crawley Town and Carlisle United.

Form, Standings, Stats

Crawley Town

All competitions
Last Game: Leyton Orient 1-0 Crawley
Saturday, February 18 at 3pm in League Two

Carlisle United

All competitions
Last Game: Carlisle 1-0 Colchester
Saturday, February 18 at 3pm in League Two

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 44.3%. A win for Crawley Town had a probability of 29.4% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.96%) and 0-2 (8.02%). The likeliest Crawley Town win was 1-0 (8.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.49%). The actual scoreline of 2-5 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Carlisle United would win this match.

Result
Crawley TownDrawCarlisle United
29.4% (-0.19 -0.19)26.29% (-0.252 -0.25)44.3% (0.439 0.44)
Both teams to score 51.21% (0.658 0.66)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.89% (0.899 0.9)53.11% (-0.901 -0.9)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.31% (0.759 0.76)74.69% (-0.76100000000001 -0.76)
Crawley Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.26% (0.327 0.33)32.74% (-0.329 -0.33)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.7% (0.365 0.37)69.3% (-0.367 -0.37)
Carlisle United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.14% (0.61 0.61)23.85% (-0.611 -0.61)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.96% (0.86799999999999 0.87)58.04% (-0.87 -0.87)
Score Analysis
    Crawley Town 29.4%
    Carlisle United 44.3%
    Draw 26.28%
Crawley TownDrawCarlisle United
1-0 @ 8.72% (-0.233 -0.23)
2-1 @ 6.98% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-0 @ 4.87% (-0.085 -0.09)
3-1 @ 2.6% (0.025 0.02)
3-2 @ 1.86% (0.05 0.05)
3-0 @ 1.81% (-0.015 -0.01)
Other @ 2.57%
Total : 29.4%
1-1 @ 12.49% (-0.11 -0.11)
0-0 @ 7.81% (-0.281 -0.28)
2-2 @ 5% (0.091 0.09)
Other @ 0.98%
Total : 26.28%
0-1 @ 11.19% (-0.2 -0.2)
1-2 @ 8.96% (0.083 0.08)
0-2 @ 8.02% (0.0030000000000001 0)
1-3 @ 4.28% (0.115 0.12)
0-3 @ 3.83% (0.069 0.07)
2-3 @ 2.39% (0.085 0.09)
1-4 @ 1.53% (0.067 0.07)
0-4 @ 1.37% (0.049 0.05)
Other @ 2.73%
Total : 44.3%

Head to Head
Jul 30, 2022 3pm
Carlisle
1-0
Crawley
Dennis (5')
Armer (22')

Balagizi (55'), Omole (74'), Tilley (78')
Jan 15, 2022 3pm
Carlisle
1-1
Crawley
Alessandra (90+3')
Whelan (42'), Omotoye (45+2')
Nadesan (25')
Nichols (41'), Payne (68')
Sep 11, 2021 3pm
Crawley
2-1
Carlisle
Nichols (32'), Tsaroulla (90')
Lynch (35'), Ferry (58'), Francomb (78'), Hessenthaler (80'), Tsaroulla (90+1')
Mellish (83')
Armer (52')
Mar 30, 2021 7pm
Carlisle
2-0
Crawley
Riley (17'), Patrick (33')
Guy (77')

McNerney (66'), Craig (81')
Nov 21, 2020 1.30pm
Crawley
0-3
Carlisle

Sesay (80')
Bennett (43'), Kayode (55'), Hayden (62')
Guy (78')