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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 40.31%. A win for Crawley Town had a probability of 32.4% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.41%) and 2-0 (7.39%). The likeliest Crawley Town win was 0-1 (9.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.91%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Carlisle United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Carlisle United | Draw | Crawley Town |
| 40.31% | 27.29% | 32.4% |
| Both teams to score 49.43% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.03% | 55.97% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.93% | 77.07% |
| Carlisle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.78% | 27.22% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.36% | 62.63% |
| Crawley Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.92% | 32.08% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.45% | 68.55% |
| Score Analysis |
| Carlisle United | Draw | Crawley Town |
| 1-0 @ 11.36% 2-1 @ 8.41% 2-0 @ 7.39% 3-1 @ 3.65% 3-0 @ 3.21% 3-2 @ 2.07% 4-1 @ 1.19% 4-0 @ 1.04% Other @ 1.99% Total : 40.31% | 1-1 @ 12.91% 0-0 @ 8.73% 2-2 @ 4.78% Other @ 0.86% Total : 27.28% | 0-1 @ 9.93% 1-2 @ 7.34% 0-2 @ 5.64% 1-3 @ 2.78% 0-3 @ 2.14% 2-3 @ 1.81% Other @ 2.76% Total : 32.4% |