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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 46.24%. A draw had a probability of 27.3% and a win for Barrow had a probability of 26.49%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.06%) and 2-1 (8.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.77%), while for a Barrow win it was 0-1 (9.26%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Carlisle United would win this match.
Result | ||
Carlisle United | Draw | Barrow |
46.24% ( 1.06) | 27.27% ( -0.4) | 26.49% ( -0.67) |
Both teams to score 46.51% ( 0.61) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
41.74% ( 1.01) | 58.26% ( -1.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
21.11% ( 0.79) | 78.89% ( -0.79) |
Carlisle United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.81% ( 0.99) | 25.19% ( -0.99) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
40.08% ( 1.35) | 59.92% ( -1.35) |
Barrow Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
62.17% ( -0.01) | 37.82% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
25.4% ( -0) | 74.6% ( 0) |
Score Analysis |
Carlisle United | Draw | Barrow |
1-0 @ 13.13% ( -0.14) 2-0 @ 9.06% ( 0.16) 2-1 @ 8.8% ( 0.16) 3-0 @ 4.16% ( 0.19) 3-1 @ 4.05% ( 0.18) 3-2 @ 1.97% ( 0.09) 4-0 @ 1.44% ( 0.1) 4-1 @ 1.4% ( 0.1) Other @ 2.24% Total : 46.23% | 1-1 @ 12.77% ( -0.13) 0-0 @ 9.53% ( -0.38) 2-2 @ 4.28% ( 0.08) Other @ 0.69% Total : 27.27% | 0-1 @ 9.26% ( -0.36) 1-2 @ 6.21% ( -0.06) 0-2 @ 4.5% ( -0.18) 1-3 @ 2.01% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 1.46% ( -0.06) 2-3 @ 1.39% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.66% Total : 26.49% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 39 | 20 | 13 | 6 | 79 | 37 | 42 | 73 |
2 | Stockport CountyStockport | 38 | 20 | 11 | 7 | 75 | 40 | 35 | 71 |
3 | Wrexham | 39 | 20 | 10 | 9 | 70 | 48 | 22 | 70 |
4 | MK Dons | 40 | 20 | 7 | 13 | 63 | 54 | 9 | 67 |
5 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 39 | 18 | 11 | 10 | 67 | 55 | 12 | 65 |
6 | BarrowBarrow | 38 | 17 | 13 | 8 | 53 | 40 | 13 | 64 |
7 | Crawley TownCrawley | 38 | 18 | 5 | 15 | 57 | 54 | 3 | 59 |
8 | Gillingham | 40 | 17 | 8 | 15 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 59 |
9 | AFC Wimbledon | 40 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 58 |
10 | Walsall | 38 | 15 | 11 | 12 | 57 | 52 | 5 | 56 |
11 | Newport CountyNewport | 39 | 16 | 7 | 16 | 58 | 59 | -1 | 55 |
12 | Morecambe | 39 | 15 | 9 | 15 | 59 | 68 | -9 | 54 |
13 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 39 | 15 | 9 | 15 | 46 | 55 | -9 | 54 |
14 | Notts County | 39 | 15 | 6 | 18 | 76 | 74 | 2 | 51 |
15 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 40 | 15 | 5 | 20 | 59 | 57 | 2 | 50 |
16 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 39 | 14 | 8 | 17 | 52 | 57 | -5 | 50 |
17 | Bradford CityBradford | 39 | 13 | 11 | 15 | 46 | 53 | -7 | 50 |
18 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 38 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 51 | 62 | -11 | 49 |
19 | Salford City | 40 | 12 | 11 | 17 | 60 | 73 | -13 | 47 |
20 | Swindon TownSwindon | 39 | 11 | 11 | 17 | 65 | 70 | -5 | 44 |
21 | Grimsby Town | 38 | 8 | 15 | 15 | 49 | 65 | -16 | 39 |
22 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 37 | 8 | 10 | 19 | 47 | 66 | -19 | 34 |
23 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 40 | 7 | 12 | 21 | 45 | 71 | -26 | 33 |
24 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 39 | 8 | 9 | 22 | 38 | 65 | -27 | 33 |
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