Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barrow win with a probability of 36.52%. A win for Northampton Town had a probability of 35.3% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barrow win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.77%) and 2-0 (6.75%). The likeliest Northampton Town win was 0-1 (11.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.21%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.