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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 37.87%. A win for Crawley Town had a probability of 34.54% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.07%) and 2-0 (6.9%). The likeliest Crawley Town win was 0-1 (10.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Carlisle United | Draw | Crawley Town |
| 37.87% | 27.58% | 34.54% |
| Both teams to score 48.97% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.25% | 56.75% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.3% | 77.69% |
| Carlisle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.02% | 28.98% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.13% | 64.87% |
| Crawley Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.96% | 31.04% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.64% | 67.35% |
| Score Analysis |
| Carlisle United | Draw | Crawley Town |
| 1-0 @ 11.14% 2-1 @ 8.07% 2-0 @ 6.9% 3-1 @ 3.33% 3-0 @ 2.85% 3-2 @ 1.95% 4-1 @ 1.03% Other @ 2.6% Total : 37.87% | 1-1 @ 13.03% 0-0 @ 9% 2-2 @ 4.72% Other @ 0.83% Total : 27.58% | 0-1 @ 10.52% 1-2 @ 7.62% 0-2 @ 6.16% 1-3 @ 2.97% 0-3 @ 2.4% 2-3 @ 1.84% Other @ 3.03% Total : 34.54% |