League One

League One | Gameweek 22

Dec 16, 2023 at 3pm UK

Brunton Park

Carlisle
2 - 2
Northampton

Armer (67'), Edmondson (81')

FT(HT: 0-1)

McWilliams (30'), Bowie (90+3')
Brough (34'), Bowie (69')

Coverage of the League One clash between Carlisle United and Northampton Town.

Form, Standings, Stats

Carlisle United

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Blackpool 3-0 Carlisle
Saturday, December 9 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Northampton Town

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Northampton 3-0 Fleetwood
Saturday, December 9 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 45.39%. A win for Northampton Town had a probability of 28.71% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.1%) and 2-0 (8.13%). The likeliest Northampton Town win was 0-1 (8.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.

Result
Carlisle United	Draw	Northampton Town
45.39% ( 0.12)	25.9% ( -0.03)	28.71% ( -0.09)

Both teams to score 52% (

0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.1% (

0.08)

51.9% (

-0.08)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.35% (

0.07)

73.65% (

-0.07)

Carlisle United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.18% (

0.09)

22.81% (

-0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.47% (

0.13)

56.53% (

-0.13)

Northampton Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.37% (

-0.03)

32.63% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.83% (

-0.03)

69.17% (

0.03)

Score Analysis

Carlisle United 45.39%

Northampton Town 28.71%

Draw 25.9%

Carlisle United	Draw	Northampton Town
1-0 @ 11% 2-1 @ 9.1% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 8.13% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 4.48% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 4% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.51% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.66% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.48% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 0.93% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.09% Total : 45.39%	1-1 @ 12.32% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 7.44% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5.1% ( 0) 3-3 @ 0.94% ( 0) Other @ 0.1% Total : 25.9%	0-1 @ 8.34% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 6.9% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 4.67% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 2.58% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.9% 0-3 @ 1.74% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.58% Total : 28.71%