League One Gameweek 15
Carlisle
Oct 24, 2023 7.45pm
2
1
HT : 0 1
FT Brunton Park
Burton Albion
  • Jordan Gibson 53' goal
  • Joe Garner 77' yellowcard
  • Joe Garner 88' goal
  • yellowcard Tom Hamer 25'
  • yellowcard Dino Maamria 26'
  • goal Mark Helm 28'
  • yellowcard Mark Helm 36'
  • yellowcard Beryly Lubala 77'

Carlisle United vs Burton Albion - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Carlisle United

All competitions
Last game
Oct 21, 2023 3.00pm
Portsmouth 1 - 0 Carlisle
Goals scored
41
Top scorer
Jordan Gibson

Burton Albion

All competitions
Last game
Oct 21, 2023 3.00pm
Burton Albion 4 - 1 Bristol Rovers
Goals scored
39
Top scorer
Mark Helm

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 41.01%. A win for Burton Albion had a probability of 31.92% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.52%) and 2-0 (7.49%). The likeliest Burton Albion win was 0-1 (9.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.83%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Carlisle United would win this match.

Result

Carlisle United 41.01% ▼ (-0.77)
Draw 27.07% ▲ (+0.40)
Burton Albion 31.92% ▲ (+0.38)

Both Teams to Score: 

49.94% ▼ (-1.10)

Goals

Over 2.5 44.74% ▼ (-1.46)
Under 2.5 55.26% ▲ (+1.46)
Over 3.5 23.52% ▼ (-1.21)
Under 3.5 76.49% ▲ (+1.21)
Over 4.5 10.43% ▼ (-0.75)
Under 4.5 89.57% ▲ (+0.76)

Carlisle United Goals

Over 0.5 73.5% ▼ (-1.07)
Under 0.5 26.5% ▲ (+1.08)
Over 1.5 38.3% ▼ (-1.45)
Under 1.5 61.7% ▲ (+1.45)

Burton Albion Goals

Over 0.5 67.95% ▼ (-0.49)
Under 0.5 32.05% ▲ (+0.49)
Over 1.5 31.48% ▼ (-0.56)
Under 1.5 68.52% ▲ (+0.56)

Score analysis

Carlisle United 41%
Draw 27.07%
Burton Albion 31.92%
Carlisle United
1-0 @ 11.27% ▲ (+0.28)
2-1 @ 8.52% ▼ (-0.16)
2-0 @ 7.49% ▼ (-0.04)
3-1 @ 3.77% ▼ (-0.19)
3-0 @ 3.32% ▼ (-0.12)
3-2 @ 2.15% ▼ (-0.14)
4-1 @ 1.25% ▼ (-0.11)
4-0 @ 1.1% ▼ (-0.08)
Other @ 2.14%
Total : 41%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.83% ▲ (+0.17)
0-0 @ 8.49% ▲ (+0.47)
2-2 @ 4.85% ▼ (-0.16)
Other @ 0.9%
Total : 27.07%
Burton Albion
0-1 @ 9.67% ▲ (+0.41)
1-2 @ 7.3% ▼ (-0.01)
0-2 @ 5.5% ▲ (+0.17)
1-3 @ 2.77% ▼ (-0.04)
0-3 @ 2.09% ▲ (+0.04)
2-3 @ 1.84% ▼ (-0.09)
Other @ 2.76%
Total : 31.92%

Head to Head

League Two
Burton Albion
Apr 15, 2015 7.45pm
1
1
HT : 0 1
FT
Carlisle
  • Denny Johnstone 98' goal
  • goal Danny Grainger 2'
  • yellowcard Nathan Buddle 69'
League Two
Carlisle
Oct 21, 2014 7.45pm
3
4
HT : 2 4
FT
Burton Albion
  • Kyle Dempsey 12' goal
  • Brad Potts 45' goal
  • Hayden White 51' yellowcard
  • Derek Asamoah 65' goal
  • goal Damien McCrory 5'
  • goal Lee Bell 27'
  • goal Jacob Blyth 40'
  • goal Alex MacDonald 45'
  • yellowcard Alex MacDonald 51'
  • yellowcard Stuart Beavon 58'
  • redcard Stuart Beavon 90'

Form Data

Portsmouth 1 - 0 Carlisle
Carlisle 0 - 1 Leyton Orient
Carlisle 0 - 2 Forest U21s
Bolton 1 - 3 Carlisle
Carlisle 1 - 1 Peterborough
Wycombe 2 - 0 Carlisle
Burton Albion 4 - 1 Bristol Rovers
Lincoln 0 - 1 Burton Albion
Burton Albion 2 - 1 Cambridge
Burton Albion 2 - 1 Wigan
Reading 0 - 0 Burton Albion
Burton Albion 2 - 0 Everton U21s