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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 37.87%. A win for Northampton Town had a probability of 33.75% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.88%) and 2-0 (7.13%). The likeliest Northampton Town win was 0-1 (11.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.25%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Carlisle United | Draw | Northampton Town |
| 37.87% ( | 28.39% ( | 33.75% ( |
| Both teams to score 46.5% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.22% ( | 59.78% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.93% ( | 80.07% ( |
| Carlisle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.53% ( | 30.47% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.32% ( | 66.68% ( |
| Northampton Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.88% ( | 33.12% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.28% ( | 69.72% |
| Score Analysis |
| Carlisle United | Draw | Northampton Town |
| 1-0 @ 11.99% 2-1 @ 7.88% ( 2-0 @ 7.13% 3-1 @ 3.12% 3-0 @ 2.82% ( 3-2 @ 1.72% 4-1 @ 0.93% Other @ 2.28% Total : 37.86% | 1-1 @ 13.25% 0-0 @ 10.09% 2-2 @ 4.35% Other @ 0.69% Total : 28.38% | 0-1 @ 11.15% 1-2 @ 7.32% ( 0-2 @ 6.16% 1-3 @ 2.7% 0-3 @ 2.27% 2-3 @ 1.6% Other @ 2.54% Total : 33.75% |