League One

League One | Gameweek 30

Jan 27, 2024 at 3pm UK

Brunton Park

Carlisle
1 - 4
Bolton

Gibson (71')
Mellish (51')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Ashworth (31'), Maghoma (36'), Dempsey (90+1'), Ogbeta (90+7')
Toal (62'), Cogley (85')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Carlisle United and Bolton Wanderers, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Carlisle United

All competitions

Last Game: Barnsley 2-1 Carlisle
Tuesday, January 16 at 7.45pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Bolton Wanderers

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Bolton 1-0 Cheltenham
Tuesday, January 23 at 7.45pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolton Wanderers win with a probability of 48.2%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Carlisle United had a probability of 25.77%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bolton Wanderers win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.21%) and 0-2 (9.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.34%), while for a Carlisle United win it was 1-0 (8.27%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bolton Wanderers would win this match.

Result
Carlisle United	Draw	Bolton Wanderers
25.77% ( 0.02)	26.03% ( -0.02)	48.2% ( -0)

Both teams to score 49.47% (

0.07)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.85% (

0.08)

54.15% (

-0.08)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.44% (

0.07)

75.56% (

-0.06)

Carlisle United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.82% (

0.06)

36.19% (

-0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.03% (

0.06)

72.97% (

-0.06)

Bolton Wanderers Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.52% (

0.03)

22.48% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.97% (

0.05)

56.04% (

-0.05)

Score Analysis

Carlisle United 25.77%

Bolton Wanderers 48.2%

Draw 26.03%

Carlisle United	Draw	Bolton Wanderers
1-0 @ 8.27% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 6.27% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 4.2% ( 0) 3-1 @ 2.13% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.59% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 1.42% ( 0) Other @ 1.89% Total : 25.77%	1-1 @ 12.34% 0-0 @ 8.14% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 4.68% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.87% Total : 26.03%	0-1 @ 12.14% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 9.21% ( 0) 0-2 @ 9.06% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 4.58% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 4.51% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.33% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 1.71% ( 0) 0-4 @ 1.68% ( 0) Other @ 2.98% Total : 48.2%