League One

League One | Gameweek 28

Jan 13, 2024 at 3pm UK

Brunton Park

Carlisle
1 - 3
Oxford Utd

McCalmont (71')
Moxon (27'), Neal (31'), Mellish (43'), Garner (72')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Harris (39', 47'), Goodrham (67')
Bennett (53'), Smyth (72')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Carlisle United and Oxford United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Carlisle United

All competitions

Last Game: Exeter 2-1 Carlisle
Saturday, January 6 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Oxford United

All competitions

League One

Last Game: AFC Wimbledon 2-0 Oxford Utd
Tuesday, January 9 at 7.45pm in EFL Trophy

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 37.76%. A win for Oxford United had a probability of 36.1% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.32%) and 2-0 (6.38%). The likeliest Oxford United win was 0-1 (9.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Oxford United would win this match.

Result
Carlisle United	Draw	Oxford United
37.76% ( -0.06)	26.15% ( -0.02)	36.1% ( 0.08)

Both teams to score 53.72% (

0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.18% (

0.07)

50.81% (

-0.07)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.3% (

0.06)

72.7% (

-0.06)

Carlisle United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.77% (

-0.01)

26.23% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.67% (

-0.01)

61.33% (

0.01)

Oxford United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.82% (

0.08)

27.18% (

-0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.42% (

0.1)

62.58% (

-0.1)

Score Analysis

Carlisle United 37.76%

Oxford United 36.1%

Draw 26.14%

Carlisle United	Draw	Oxford United
1-0 @ 9.54% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 8.32% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 6.38% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 3.71% ( -0) 3-0 @ 2.85% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.42% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.24% ( -0) 4-0 @ 0.95% ( -0) Other @ 2.34% Total : 37.76%	1-1 @ 12.42% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 7.13% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5.42% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.05% ( 0) Other @ 0.12% Total : 26.14%	0-1 @ 9.29% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 8.1% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 6.05% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 3.52% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 2.63% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.35% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 1.15% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.03% Total : 36.1%