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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 46.79%. A draw had a probability of 27% and a win for Bolton Wanderers had a probability of 26.25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.09%) and 2-1 (8.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.67%), while for a Bolton Wanderers win it was 0-1 (9.01%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Carlisle United | Draw | Bolton Wanderers |
| 46.79% | 26.97% | 26.25% |
| Both teams to score 47.17% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.68% | 57.32% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.85% | 78.15% |
| Carlisle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.49% | 24.51% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.03% | 58.97% |
| Bolton Wanderers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.48% | 37.52% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.7% | 74.3% |
| Score Analysis |
| Carlisle United | Draw | Bolton Wanderers |
| 1-0 @ 12.92% 2-0 @ 9.09% 2-1 @ 8.91% 3-0 @ 4.26% 3-1 @ 4.18% 3-2 @ 2.05% 4-0 @ 1.5% 4-1 @ 1.47% Other @ 2.4% Total : 46.78% | 1-1 @ 12.67% 0-0 @ 9.19% 2-2 @ 4.37% Other @ 0.73% Total : 26.96% | 0-1 @ 9.01% 1-2 @ 6.21% 0-2 @ 4.42% 1-3 @ 2.03% 0-3 @ 1.44% 2-3 @ 1.43% Other @ 1.7% Total : 26.25% |