Copa Sudamericana | First Round

Mar 6, 2024 at 12.30am UK

Estadio Polideportivo Misael Delgado

Carabobo
1 - 1
Metropolitanos

Carlos Ortiz (64' pen., 64' pen.)
Apaolaza (19'), Apaolaza (19'), Merino Rivera (20'), Merino (20'), Aponte (45+1'), Aponte (45+1')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Ortiz (7', 7')
Fabian Angulo Cuero (38'), Cuero (38')
Eduardo Graterol Perez (62'), Graterol (62')

Metropolitanos win 5-4 on penalties

Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana First Round clash between Carabobo and Metropolitanos.

Form, Standings, Stats

Carabobo

Last Game: Atletico Mineiro 3-1 Carabobo
Thursday, March 2 at 12.30am in Copa Libertadores

Metropolitanos

Last Game: Nacional 1-0 Metropolitanos
Wednesday, June 28 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carabobo win with a probability of 52.38%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Metropolitanos had a probability of 21.62%.

The most likely scoreline for a Carabobo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.56%) and 2-1 (9.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.14%), while for a Metropolitanos win it was 0-1 (8.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood.

Result
Carabobo	Draw	Metropolitanos
52.38% ( 0.08)	26% ( -0.01)	21.62% ( -0.07)

Both teams to score 45.3% (

-0.06)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.58% (

-0.03)

57.42% (

0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.77% (

-0.03)

78.23% (

0.03)

Carabobo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.98% (

0.02)

22.02% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.67% (

0.03)

55.33% (

-0.02)

Metropolitanos Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

58.09% (

-0.09)

41.91% (

0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

21.64% (

-0.08)

78.36% (

0.08)

Score Analysis

Carabobo 52.37%

Metropolitanos 21.62%

Draw 26%

Carabobo	Draw	Metropolitanos
1-0 @ 13.96% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 10.56% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 9.19% ( -0) 3-0 @ 5.33% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 4.64% ( 0) 4-0 @ 2.02% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.02% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.75% ( 0) Other @ 2.9% Total : 52.37%	1-1 @ 12.14% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 9.23% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 4% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.64% Total : 26%	0-1 @ 8.02% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 5.28% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 3.49% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 1.53% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.16% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.01% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.13% Total : 21.62%