Copa Libertadores

Copa Libertadores | Round of 16 | 1st Leg

Aug 16, 2024 at 1.30am UK

Estadio Jornalista Mario Filho

Flamengo
2 - 0
Bolivar

(Flamengo win 2-1 on aggregate)

Araujo (30', 30'), Pereira (89', 89')
Pulgar (52'), Pulgar (52'), de la Cruz (60'), de la Cruz (60')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Justiniano (31'), Justiniano (31')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Copa Libertadores clash between Flamengo and Bolivar, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Flamengo

All competitions

Copa Libertadores

Last Game: Flamengo 1-1 Palmeiras
Sunday, August 11 at 8pm in Brasileiro

Goals
for

Top scorers

Bolivar

All competitions

Last Game: Bolivar 3-1 Palestino
Wednesday, May 29 at 1am in Copa Libertadores

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 69.1%. A draw had a probability of 17.7% and a win for Bolivar had a probability of 13.18%.

The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.66%) and 1-0 (8.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.23%), while for a Bolivar win it was 1-2 (3.81%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Flamengo in this match.

Result
Flamengo	Draw	Bolivar
69.1% ( -0.27)	17.72% ( 0.14)	13.18% ( 0.14)

Both teams to score 54.59% (

-0.11)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

63.53% (

-0.34)

36.47% (

0.34)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

41.39% (

-0.37)

58.61% (

0.37)

Flamengo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

90.45% (

-0.15)

9.55% (

0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

68.02% (

-0.36)

31.98% (

0.36)

Bolivar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.35% (

-0.02)

39.65% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.67% (

-0.02)

76.33% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

Flamengo 69.1%

Bolivar 13.18%

Draw 17.72%

Flamengo	Draw	Bolivar
2-0 @ 10.44% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 9.66% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 8.89% ( 0.09) 3-0 @ 8.18% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 7.56% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 4.8% ( -0.05) 4-1 @ 4.44% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 3.5% ( -0.02) 5-0 @ 2.26% ( -0.04) 5-1 @ 2.09% ( -0.04) 4-2 @ 2.05% ( -0.03) 5-2 @ 0.97% ( -0.02) Other @ 4.27% Total : 69.1%	1-1 @ 8.23% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 4.47% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 3.79% ( 0.06) 3-3 @ 1.08% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.16% Total : 17.72%	1-2 @ 3.81% ( 0.03) 0-1 @ 3.5% ( 0.06) 0-2 @ 1.62% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 1.38% ( 0) 1-3 @ 1.17% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.7% Total : 13.18%