Copa del Rey | Round of 32

Jan 6, 2024 at 8.30pm UK

Estadio El Montecillo

Arandina
1 - 3
Real Madrid

Nacho (90+3' og.)
Pesca (53'), Cabral (76'), Rodriguez (83')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Joselu (54' pen.), Diaz (55'), Rodrygo (90+1')

Reaction

Real Madrid's Eduardo Camavinga on September 20, 2023

Carlo Ancelotti plays down Eduardo Camavinga injury fears

Real Madrid head coach Carlo Ancelotti explains Eduardo Camavinga's substitution against Arandina in the Copa del Rey.

Jan 7, 09:11

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Arandina

Last Game: Arandina 2-1 Cadiz
Thursday, December 7 at 6pm in Copa del Rey

Real Madrid

All competitions

Last Game: Real Madrid 1-0 Mallorca
Wednesday, January 3 at 6.15pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 77.26%. A draw had a probability of 15.2% and a win for Arandina had a probability of 7.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 0-2 with a probability of 14.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (11.91%) and 0-3 (11.41%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.2%), while for an Arandina win it was 1-0 (3%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.

Result
Arandina	Draw	Real Madrid
7.5% ( 0)	15.23% ( 0)	77.26% ( -0)

Both teams to score 41.22% (

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.72% (

-0)

42.28% (

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.32% (

-0)

64.68% (

Arandina Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

45.34% (

54.66% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

12.32% (

87.68% (

-0)

Real Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

90.91% (

-0)

9.09% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

69.11% (

-0)

30.89% (

Score Analysis

Arandina 7.5%

Real Madrid 77.24%

Draw 15.23%

Arandina	Draw	Real Madrid
1-0 @ 3% ( 0) 2-1 @ 2.17% 2-0 @ 0.91% ( 0) Other @ 1.42% Total : 7.5%	1-1 @ 7.2% ( 0) 0-0 @ 4.97% 2-2 @ 2.61% ( 0) Other @ 0.46% Total : 15.23%	0-2 @ 14.28% 0-1 @ 11.91% 0-3 @ 11.41% 1-2 @ 8.63% ( 0) 1-3 @ 6.9% 0-4 @ 6.84% ( -0) 1-4 @ 4.14% 0-5 @ 3.28% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.08% 1-5 @ 1.98% 0-6 @ 1.31% 2-4 @ 1.25% Other @ 3.23% Total : 77.24%