Copa del Rey | First Round
Nov 1, 2023 at 4.30pm UK
Estadio El Montecillo

Arandina
1 - 0
Murcia

El Battioui (43')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Gonzalez (47'), Rojas (72')
Coverage of the Copa del Rey First Round clash between Arandina and Real Murcia.

Form, Standings, Stats

Arandina

:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Real Murcia

:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: Murcia 0-0 Sheff Weds
Tuesday, July 18 at 6pm in Club Friendlies 1
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arandina win with a probability of 37.85%. A win for Real Murcia had a probability of 33% and a draw had a probability of 29.1%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arandina win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.66%) and 2-0 (7.31%). The likeliest Real Murcia win was 0-1 (11.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Arandina in this match.

Result
ArandinaDrawReal Murcia
37.85% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)29.15% (0.0020000000000024 0)33% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Both teams to score 44.26% (-0.010000000000005 -0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
37.52% (-0.013999999999996 -0.01)62.47% (0.011000000000003 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
17.91% (-0.009999999999998 -0.01)82.08% (0.007000000000005 0.01)
Arandina Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.15% (-0.0079999999999956 -0.01)31.84% (0.004999999999999 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.71% (-0.0070000000000014 -0.01)68.28% (0.0050000000000097 0.01)
Real Murcia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.94% (-0.010999999999996 -0.01)35.06% (0.0069999999999979 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.19% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)71.81% (0.0069999999999908 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Arandina 37.85%
    Real Murcia 33%
    Draw 29.14%
ArandinaDrawReal Murcia
1-0 @ 12.77%
2-1 @ 7.66% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
2-0 @ 7.31% (0.00099999999999945 0)
3-1 @ 2.92%
3-0 @ 2.79% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-2 @ 1.53%
Other @ 2.86%
Total : 37.85%
1-1 @ 13.39%
0-0 @ 11.16% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-2 @ 4.02% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
Other @ 0.58%
Total : 29.14%
0-1 @ 11.7% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
1-2 @ 7.02% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
0-2 @ 6.13%
1-3 @ 2.45% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
0-3 @ 2.14% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
2-3 @ 1.4% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 2.15%
Total : 33%