La Liga

La Liga | Gameweek 17

Dec 17, 2023 at 8pm UK

Estadio Santiago Bernabeu

Real Madrid
4 - 1
Villarreal

Bellingham (25'), Rodrygo (37'), Diaz (64'), Modric (68')
Bellingham (67'), Tchouameni (83')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Luis Morales (54')
Altimira (67'), Akhomach (74'), Capoue (85')

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Real Madrid

All competitions

La Liga

Last Game: Union Berlin 2-3 Real Madrid
Tuesday, December 12 at 8pm in Champions League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Villarreal

All competitions

La Liga

Last Game: Rennes 2-3 Villarreal
Thursday, December 14 at 5.45pm in Europa League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 66.19%. A draw had a probability of 18.1% and a win for Villarreal had a probability of 15.73%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.75%) and 3-1 (7.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.99%), while for a Villarreal win it was 1-2 (4.37%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.

Result
Real Madrid	Draw	Villarreal
66.19% ( 0.11)	18.08% ( -0.25)	15.73% ( 0.14)

Both teams to score 60.46% (

1.36)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

67.75% (

1.56)

32.24% (

-1.56)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

46.15% (

1.79)

53.85% (

-1.79)

Real Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

90.9% (

0.45)

9.1% (

-0.45)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

69.1% (

1.06)

30.9% (

-1.07)

Villarreal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.51% (

1.17)

33.49% (

-1.17)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.87% (

1.26)

70.13% (

-1.26)

Score Analysis

Real Madrid 66.19%

Villarreal 15.73%

Draw 18.08%

Real Madrid	Draw	Villarreal
2-1 @ 9.58% ( -0.1) 2-0 @ 8.75% ( -0.38) 3-1 @ 7.65% ( 0.08) 1-0 @ 7.3% ( -0.47) 3-0 @ 7% ( -0.15) 4-1 @ 4.59% ( 0.14) 4-0 @ 4.19% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 4.19% ( 0.17) 4-2 @ 2.51% ( 0.15) 5-1 @ 2.2% ( 0.11) 5-0 @ 2.01% ( 0.04) 5-2 @ 1.2% ( 0.1) 4-3 @ 0.92% ( 0.08) Other @ 4.11% Total : 66.19%	1-1 @ 7.99% ( -0.25) 2-2 @ 5.24% ( 0.11) 0-0 @ 3.05% ( -0.26) 3-3 @ 1.53% ( 0.11) Other @ 0.28% Total : 18.08%	1-2 @ 4.37% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 3.33% ( -0.17) 2-3 @ 1.91% ( 0.1) 0-2 @ 1.82% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 1.59% ( 0.05) Other @ 2.71% Total : 15.73%