La Liga
Gameweek
17
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-
Jude Bellingham
25'
-
Rodrygo
37'
-
Brahim Diaz
64'
-
Jude Bellingham
67'
-
Luka Modric
68'
-
Aurelien Tchouameni
83'
-
Jose Luis Morales
54'
-
Adria Altimira
67'
-
Ilias Akhomach
74'
-
Etienne Capoue
85'
Real Madrid vs Villarreal - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings
The match
Team News
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Match Preview
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Predicted Lineups
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Injuries & Suspensions
Form, Standings, Stats
Data analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 66.19%. A draw had a probability of 18.1% and a win for Villarreal had a probability of 15.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.75%) and 3-1 (7.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.99%), while for a Villarreal win it was 1-2 (4.37%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.
Result
Real Madrid
66.19%
▲
(+0.11)
Draw
18.08%
▼
(-0.26)
Villarreal
15.73%
▲
(+0.15)
Both Teams to Score:
60.46%
▲
(+1.36)
Goals
Over 2.5
67.75%
▲
(+1.56)
Under 2.5
32.24%
▼
(-1.57)
Over 3.5
46.15%
▲
(+1.80)
Under 3.5
53.85%
▼
(-1.80)
Over 4.5
27.29%
▲
(+1.55)
Under 4.5
72.71%
▼
(-1.55)
Real Madrid Goals
Over 0.5
90.9%
▲
(+0.45)
Under 0.5
9.1%
▼
(-0.45)
Over 1.5
69.1%
▲
(+1.07)
Under 1.5
30.9%
▼
(-1.07)
Villarreal Goals
Over 0.5
66.51%
▲
(+1.18)
Under 0.5
33.49%
▼
(-1.18)
Over 1.5
29.87%
▲
(+1.27)
Under 1.5
70.13%
▼
(-1.27)
Score analysis
Real Madrid
66.19%
Draw
18.08%
Villarreal
15.73%
Real Madrid
2-1
@
9.58%
▼
(-0.10)
2-0 @ 8.75% ▼ (-0.38)
3-1 @ 7.65% ▲ (+0.08)
1-0 @ 7.3% ▼ (-0.48)
3-0 @ 7% ▼ (-0.16)
4-1 @ 4.59% ▲ (+0.14)
4-0 @ 4.19% ▼ (-0.01)
3-2 @ 4.19% ▲ (+0.18)
4-2 @ 2.51% ▲ (+0.16)
5-1 @ 2.2% ▲ (+0.11)
5-0 @ 2.01% ▲ (+0.04)
5-2 @ 1.2% ▲ (+0.10)
Other @ 5.02%
Total : 66.19%
2-0 @ 8.75% ▼ (-0.38)
3-1 @ 7.65% ▲ (+0.08)
1-0 @ 7.3% ▼ (-0.48)
3-0 @ 7% ▼ (-0.16)
4-1 @ 4.59% ▲ (+0.14)
4-0 @ 4.19% ▼ (-0.01)
3-2 @ 4.19% ▲ (+0.18)
4-2 @ 2.51% ▲ (+0.16)
5-1 @ 2.2% ▲ (+0.11)
5-0 @ 2.01% ▲ (+0.04)
5-2 @ 1.2% ▲ (+0.10)
Other @ 5.02%
Total : 66.19%
Draw
1-1
@
7.99%
▼
(-0.25)
2-2 @ 5.24% ▲ (+0.12)
0-0 @ 3.05% ▼ (-0.27)
3-3 @ 1.53% ▲ (+0.11)
Other @ 0.28%
Total : 18.08%
2-2 @ 5.24% ▲ (+0.12)
0-0 @ 3.05% ▼ (-0.27)
3-3 @ 1.53% ▲ (+0.11)
Other @ 0.28%
Total : 18.08%
Villarreal
1-2
@
4.37%
▲
(+0.01)
0-1 @ 3.33% ▼ (-0.18)
2-3 @ 1.91% ▲ (+0.10)
0-2 @ 1.82% ▼ (-0.04)
1-3 @ 1.59% ▲ (+0.06)
Other @ 2.71%
Total : 15.73%
0-1 @ 3.33% ▼ (-0.18)
2-3 @ 1.91% ▲ (+0.10)
0-2 @ 1.82% ▼ (-0.04)
1-3 @ 1.59% ▲ (+0.06)
Other @ 2.71%
Total : 15.73%
Head to Head
La Liga
Gameweek
28
-
Pau Torres
16'
-
Vinicius Junior
48'
-
Samuel Chukwueze
39'
-
Jose Luis Morales
70'
-
Samuel Chukwueze
80'
Copa del Rey
-
Etienne Capoue
4'
-
Samuel Chukwueze
42'
-
Vinicius Junior
57'
-
Eder Militao
69'
-
Dani Ceballos
86'
La Liga
Gameweek
16
-
Yeremy Pino
47'
-
Gerard Moreno
63'
-
Karim Benzema
60'
La Liga
Gameweek
24
-
Juan Foyth
23'
-
Raul Albiol
51'
-
Eder Militao
23'
-
Marco Asensio
29'
-
Gareth Bale
45'+2'
-
Casemiro
88'
La Liga
Gameweek
7
-
Vinicius Junior
40'
-
Francis Coquelin
55'
-
Moi Gomez
70'
La Liga
Gameweek
38
-
Karim Benzema
87'
-
Luka Modric
90'+2'
-
Yeremi Pino
20'
Form Data
Build-up
News
News
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