Champions League

Champions League | Group Stage

Nov 29, 2023 at 8pm UK

Estadio Santiago Bernabeu

Real Madrid
4 - 2
Napoli

Rodrygo (11'), Bellingham (22'), Paz (84'), Joselu (90+4')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Simeone (9'), Zambo Anguissa (47')
Zielinski (49'), Cajuste (90')

Reaction

Real Madrid attacker Rodrygo on September 20, 2023

Rodrygo calms injury fears after being substituted against Napoli

Real Madrid forward Rodrygo says that he was suffering with "a little cramp" in the latter stages of Wednesday's game with Napoli.

Nov 30, 12:39

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Real Madrid

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Cadiz 0-3 Real Madrid
Sunday, November 26 at 5.30pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Napoli

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Atalanta 1-2 Napoli
Saturday, November 25 at 5pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 49.01%. A win for Napoli had a probability of 25.93% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.44%) and 2-0 (8.73%). The likeliest Napoli win was 0-1 (7.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.91%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.

Result
Real Madrid	Draw	Napoli
49.01% ( 0.01)	25.05%	25.93% ( -0.01)

Both teams to score 52.54% (

-0)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.81% (

-0)

50.19% (

0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.85% (

-0)

72.15% (

0.01)

Real Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.5% (

20.5% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.01% (

52.98% (

Napoli Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.09% (

-0)

33.91% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.41% (

-0.01)

70.58% (

0.01)

Score Analysis

Real Madrid 49.01%

Napoli 25.93%

Draw 25.05%

Real Madrid	Draw	Napoli
1-0 @ 11.01% 2-1 @ 9.44% ( 0) 2-0 @ 8.73% ( 0) 3-1 @ 4.99% ( 0) 3-0 @ 4.61% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.7% 4-1 @ 1.98% 4-0 @ 1.83% 4-2 @ 1.07% Other @ 2.66% Total : 49.01%	1-1 @ 11.91% 0-0 @ 6.95% ( 0) 2-2 @ 5.11% ( -0) 3-3 @ 0.97% ( -0) Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.05%	0-1 @ 7.52% ( 0) 1-2 @ 6.44% ( -0) 0-2 @ 4.06% ( -0) 1-3 @ 2.32% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.84% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.47% ( -0) Other @ 2.28% Total : 25.93%