Champions League

Champions League | Group Stage

Sep 20, 2023 at 5.45pm UK

Estadio Santiago Bernabeu

Real Madrid
1 - 0
Union Berlin

Bellingham (90+4')
Tchouameni (37')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Tousart (1')

Reaction

Real Madrid's Jude Bellingham celebrates scoring their first goal on September 20, 2023

Jude Bellingham opens up on incredible start to Real Madrid career

Real Madrid midfielder Jude Bellingham opens up on his impressive start to life with Carlo Ancelotti's side.

Sep 21, 11:39

Real Madrid's Jude Bellingham equals Cristiano Ronaldo record in Union Berlin win

Jude Bellingham equals a record set by Cristiano Ronaldo after scoring a late winner in Real Madrid's 1-0 success over Union Berlin in the Champions League on Wednesday.

Sep 20, 22:53

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Real Madrid

All competitions

Last Game: Real Madrid 2-1 Real Sociedad
Sunday, September 17 at 8pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Union Berlin

All competitions

Last Game: Wolfsburg 2-1 Union Berlin
Saturday, September 16 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 49.49%. A win for Union Berlin had a probability of 26.43% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.57%) and 2-0 (8.19%). The likeliest Union Berlin win was 0-1 (6.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.34%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Real Madrid in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Real Madrid.

Result
Real Madrid	Draw	Union Berlin
49.49% ( 0.04)	24.07% ( 0.01)	26.43% ( -0.04)

Both teams to score 56.16% (

-0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.36% (

-0.06)

45.63% (

0.06)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.04% (

-0.05)

67.96% (

0.05)

Real Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.49% (

-0)

18.51% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.27% (

-0.01)

49.73% (

0.01)

Union Berlin Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.91% (

-0.06)

31.08% (

0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.59% (

-0.07)

67.4% (

0.07)

Score Analysis

Real Madrid 49.49%

Union Berlin 26.43%

Draw 24.07%

Real Madrid	Draw	Union Berlin
1-0 @ 9.7% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 9.57% ( 0) 2-0 @ 8.19% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 5.38% 3-0 @ 4.6% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 3.14% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.27% 4-0 @ 1.94% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.33% ( -0) Other @ 3.38% Total : 49.49%	1-1 @ 11.34% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 5.75% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.59% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.22% ( -0) Other @ 0.16% Total : 24.07%	0-1 @ 6.72% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 6.63% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 3.93% ( -0) 1-3 @ 2.58% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.18% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.53% ( -0) Other @ 2.87% Total : 26.43%