Champions League

Champions League | Group Stage

Oct 24, 2023 at 8pm UK

Estadio Municipal de Braga

Braga
1 - 2
Real Madrid

Djalo (63')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Rodrygo (16'), Bellingham (61')
Camavinga (72'), Nacho (90+3')

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Braga

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Rebordosa 0-2 Braga
Thursday, October 19 at 8pm in Taca de Portugal

Goals
for

Top scorers

Real Madrid

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Sevilla 1-1 Real Madrid
Saturday, October 21 at 5.30pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 40.33%. A win for Braga had a probability of 36.09% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.92%) and 0-2 (5.64%). The likeliest Braga win was 2-1 (8.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.59%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Real Madrid in this match.

Result
Braga	Draw	Real Madrid
36.09% ( -0.94)	23.58% ( -0.06)	40.33% ( 1.01)

Both teams to score 62.95% (

0.13)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

61.11% (

0.22)

38.89% (

-0.22)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

38.8% (

0.23)

61.2% (

-0.23)

Braga Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.33% (

-0.37)

21.67% (

0.37)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.2% (

-0.58)

54.8% (

0.58)

Real Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.36% (

0.56)

19.63% (

-0.55)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.4% (

0.89)

51.59% (

-0.89)

Score Analysis

Braga 36.09%

Real Madrid 40.33%

Draw 23.57%

Braga	Draw	Real Madrid
2-1 @ 8.1% ( -0.13) 1-0 @ 6.51% ( -0.14) 2-0 @ 4.98% ( -0.17) 3-1 @ 4.13% ( -0.11) 3-2 @ 3.36% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 2.54% ( -0.12) 4-1 @ 1.58% ( -0.06) 4-2 @ 1.29% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 0.97% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.66% Total : 36.09%	1-1 @ 10.59% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 6.59% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 4.25% ( -0.04) 3-3 @ 1.82% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.31% Total : 23.57%	1-2 @ 8.62% ( 0.11) 0-1 @ 6.92% ( 0.05) 0-2 @ 5.64% ( 0.14) 1-3 @ 4.68% ( 0.14) 2-3 @ 3.58% ( 0.07) 0-3 @ 3.06% ( 0.12) 1-4 @ 1.9% ( 0.09) 2-4 @ 1.46% ( 0.05) 0-4 @ 1.25% ( 0.07) Other @ 3.23% Total : 40.33%