Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 59.84%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Union Berlin had a probability of 19.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.89%) and 1-0 (8.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.46%), while for a Union Berlin win it was 1-2 (5.25%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood.