Getafe welcome local rivals Atletico Madrid to the Coliseum Alfonso Perez on Thursday evening for the penultimate match of their respective La Liga campaigns.
Both capital outfits have been pushing for European qualification throughout the season, but vastly contrasting form since the restart has seen Getafe fall away and Atletico secure their top-four spot already.
Match preview
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The stories of these two teams' seasons did not differ a great deal pre-lockdown, but since La Liga action resumed they have been heading in opposite directions.
Atletico Madrid are still unbeaten post-coronavirus stoppage, winning six and drawing three of their top-flight outings to climb up to third in the table with Champions League football now secured for the 2020-21 campaign.
Indeed, their unbeaten run stretches back 16 matches to February 1 across all competitions, including wins home and away to reigning European champions Liverpool in the Champions League.
Diego Simeone's side will still be pushing to finish third ahead of Sevilla, who are currently level on points with Los Rojiblancos, but they could be forgiven for letting their minds drift to the resumption of that European campaign.
A quarter-final with RB Leipzig awaits in Lisbon next month, and that is now likely to be Simeone's main focus rather than their final two games of the La Liga season against Getafe and Real Sociedad.
That said, part of their preparation for that game will be to ensure that they keep their standards up beforehand, and extending what is now an eight-match unbeaten record on the road would be a good start to that on Thursday night.
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Atletico showed typical grit and resolve to overcome Real Betis with 10 men at the weekend, and they travel to a Getafe side that has won just one of their last six home games.
Last time out on home turf they were beaten 3-1 by Villarreal, and a goalless draw at Alaves on Sunday means that they have now won only once in their last 10 outings home or away - a run which stretches back to March 1.
Since lockdown they have amassed just eight points from a possible 27, and that form has seen them fall from Champions League contenders to Europa League hopefuls.
Getafe's current position of sixth would be enough to return to the Europa League again next season, but they are level on points with seventh-placed Sociedad and so need to return to form sooner rather than later if they are to hang on to that spot.
There is a positive in the fact that neither Atletico nor their final day opponents Levante have much left to fight for this season, meaning that Getafe will go into their last two league games knowing that the points would be much more valuable to them.
However, they could also have one eye on European action resuming in August, with Italian giants Inter Milan awaiting them in the Europa League.
Getafe La Liga form: DWLDLD
Atletico Madrid La Liga form: WWDWDW
Team News
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Atletico will be without the suspended Mario Hermoso following his red card against Betis last time out, which could force Simeone into recalling Jose Gimenez earlier than he would have hoped.
The centre-back is still struggling with a knock to his ankle, but could start alongside Stefan Savic given Hermoso's absence.
Kieran Trippier is a doubt after being taken off against Betis due to stomach issues, which means that Santiago Arias could start at right-back.
Diego Costa's winning goal off the bench against Betis could earn him a starting place ahead of Alvaro Morata, while Yannick Carrasco is also pushing for a recall.
Getafe are able to welcome Allan Nyom back from suspension, meanwhile, and he is likely to return to the side at right-back with Damian Suarez still banned.
The hosts will also be without the suspended Xabier Etxeita, while Peter Etebo remains a doubt due to injury.
Getafe possible starting lineup:
Soria; Nyom, Dakonam, Cabaco, Olivera; Maksimovic, Arambarri, Timor; Jason, Mata, Cucurella
Atletico possible starting lineup:
Oblak; Arias, Gimenez, Savic, Lodi; Saul, Thomas; Carrasco, Llorente, Koke; Costa
We say: Getafe 1-1 Atletico Madrid
These two teams have drawn 17 matches between them this season, and we can see them adding to that tally here. Atletico are in much better form heading into the contest, but Getafe are at home and need the points more than their visitors so we are expecting the two teams to cancel each other out.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 39.72%. A win for Getafe had a probability of 31.75% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.03%) and 0-2 (7.64%). The likeliest Getafe win was 1-0 (10.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.25%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
