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Alaves logo
La Liga | Gameweek 7
Sep 25, 2021 at 1pm UK
Mendizorroza, Vitoria, Basque Country
Atletico Madrid logo

Alaves
1 - 0
Atletico

Laguardia (4')
Sylla (31'), N'Diaye (36')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Savic (17'), Trippier (53'), Kondogbia (55')

Preview: Alaves vs. Atletico Madrid - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's La Liga clash between Alaves and Atletico Madrid, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Atletico Madrid will look to record a second straight victory in their push to reach the summit of the La Liga table when they travel to take on basement side Alaves on Saturday.

The defending champions netted a late winner to take all three points against Getafe last time out, while their hosts are yet to pick up a result from their opening five games of the season.


Match preview

Atletico Madrid coach Diego Simeone holding the ball during the match on July 31, 2021© Reuters

After narrowly avoiding relegation last season, Alaves headed into the new campaign prepared to again battle for survival, but they have not got off to an ideal start, currently propping up the division having failed to pick up a point.

While the opening 4-1 defeat to title-chasing Real Madrid is somewhat understandable, albeit in a disappointing manner, the following 1-0 defeat to newly-promoted Mallorca and 3-0 loss at the hands of Valencia provided far more cause for concern.

El Glorioso's problems were then compounded by a 2-0 home defeat to Osasuna after an uninspiring performance, before Javier Calleja's men were handed a fifth straight league loss last time out, as Raul de Tomas converted a penalty in a 1-0 win for newly-promoted Espanyol.

Now sitting at the foot of the division as one of just two teams without a point, having only netted one goal, things are looking bleak at the Mendizorrotza Stadium, and their schedule does not get any easier as they welcome the defending champions who will look to regain top spot with another win.

Alaves' Luis Rioja celebrates scoring their first goal on February 13, 2021© Reuters

After their dominant title win last term, Los Colchoneros have somewhat struggled for consistency so far this campaign, but still sit in second spot nonetheless.

Diego Simeone's side have won four of their opening six La Liga games, while remaining without a defeat, seeing them trail city rivals and league leaders Real Madrid by just two points at this stage.

After a stalemate with Porto in the opening Champions League group game, and a disappointing goalless draw with Athletic Bilbao upon their return to league domestic action, the capital side bounced back to winning ways in dramatic fashion last time out.

Los Colchoneros travelled to Getafe, who are also yet to earn a point, but fell behind as a long-range effort hit the post and bizarrely bounced into the net off goalkeeper Jan Oblak, and it took until the 78th minute for Luis Suarez to draw his side level, before he headed in a 91st-minute winner to snatch all three points.

That was the third time that Simeone's side have scored a decisive goal in injury time so far this season, suggesting that, while they are yet to fully click and begin dominating teams, they often have the grit to salvage a late result - a trait that the Spanish manager will be pleased with.

However, they will still be keen to put some more convincing victories on the board, and Saturday presents a good opportunity to do that against La Liga's basement side.

Alaves La Liga form:
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L

Atletico Madrid La Liga form:
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • D
  • W

Atletico Madrid form (all competitions):
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • D
  • D
  • W



Team News

Atletico Madrid's Luis Suarez celebrates scoring their first goal against Getafe in La Liga on September 21, 2021© Reuters

Alaves will remain without Edgar Mendez through injury, while centre-back Florian Lejeune, midfielder Pere Pons and full-back Javi Lopez are unlikely to feature.

In the absence of Lejeune, Victor Laguardia and Alberto Rodriguez partnered up at the heart of the back four, while Matt Miazga will also be pushing for a starting spot in the back line.

Joselu has hit their only goal of the season so far, and he will continue to lead the line, having played a crucial role in maintaining their top-flight status over the last two years, with 11 goals in each of the last two La Liga seasons.

Atletico Madrid will remain without attacker Thomas Lemar and experienced midfielder Koke through injury, although they will be boosted by the return of forward Joao Felix, who was suspended last time out.

Simeone opted for a change of system for that game, switching to a back four with Jose Gimenez and Stefan Savic partnering up at the heart of the defence, accommodating another attacking player.

That saw Luis Suarez return to the side, and the veteran forward rewarded his manager by scoring both goals in their win, while Antoine Griezmann should continue to start, despite making a slow start upon his return from Barcelona on loan.

Alaves possible starting lineup:
Pacheco; Aguirregabiria, Laguardia, Miazga, Duarte; Rioja, Loum, Pina, Garcia; Guidetti, Joselu

Atletico Madrid possible starting lineup:
Oblak; Trippier, Savic, Gimenez, Lodi; Llorente, De Paul; Correa, Griezmann, Carrasco; Suarez


SM words green background

We say: Alaves 0-3 Atletico Madrid

While Los Colchoneros have not been overly convincing so far, we can only see their talented squad coming out of Saturday's game with a dominant victory.

With the hosts only netting one goal so far, Simeone's defence should not be overly troubled, while they boast a quality-filled attacking line that is more than capable of running riot of the basement side.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 57.64%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Alaves had a probability of 18.09%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.67%) and 1-2 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.36%), while for an Alaves win it was 1-0 (6.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Alaves vs Atletico

Alaves
6.9%
Draw
8.6%
Atletico Madrid
84.5%
116
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Atletico Madrid's Ricard Sanchez celebrates scoring their second goal with teammates on July 31, 2021
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