Welsh Premier League | Gameweek 5

Mar 8, 2025 at 2.30pm UK

Cyncoed Campus Artificial Pitch

Cardiff MU
4 - 2
Caernarfon

Reynolds (24'), Jones (56', 80'), Rees (72')
Rees (71')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Hudson (33'), Hill (46')
Lloyd (88'), Hudson (90+4'), Hill (90+4')

Coverage of the Welsh Premier League clash between Cardiff MU and Caernarfon Town.

Form, Standings, Stats

Cardiff MU

All competitions

Last Game: Haverfordwest 1-0 Cardiff MU
Friday, February 21 at 7.45pm in Welsh Premier League

Goals
for

Caernarfon Town

All competitions

Last Game: Caernarfon 3-2 Pen-y-Bont
Saturday, February 22 at 2.30pm in Welsh Premier League

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff MU win with a probability of 38.41%. A win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 37.14% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff MU win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.71%) and 2-0 (5.77%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win was 1-2 (8.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.32%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cardiff MU would win this match.

Result
Cardiff MU	Draw	Caernarfon Town
38.41% ( 0.48)	24.45% ( -0.04)	37.14% ( -0.43)

Both teams to score 59.78% (

0.13)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.94% (

0.18)

43.06% (

-0.17)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

34.54% (

0.17)

65.46% (

-0.17)

Cardiff MU Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.64% (

0.32)

22.36% (

-0.32)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.15% (

0.48)

55.85% (

-0.47)

Caernarfon Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.99% (

-0.14)

23.01% (

0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.18% (

-0.21)

56.82% (

0.22)

Score Analysis

Cardiff MU 38.41%

Caernarfon Town 37.14%

Draw 24.45%

Cardiff MU	Draw	Caernarfon Town
2-1 @ 8.48% ( 0.06) 1-0 @ 7.71% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 5.77% ( 0.07) 3-1 @ 4.23% ( 0.07) 3-2 @ 3.11% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 2.88% ( 0.06) 4-1 @ 1.59% ( 0.04) 4-2 @ 1.17% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 1.08% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.39% Total : 38.41%	1-1 @ 11.32% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 6.23% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 5.15% ( -0.04) 3-3 @ 1.52% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.23% Total : 24.45%	1-2 @ 8.32% ( -0.06) 0-1 @ 7.56% ( -0.09) 0-2 @ 5.55% ( -0.09) 1-3 @ 4.07% ( -0.05) 2-3 @ 3.05% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 2.72% ( -0.06) 1-4 @ 1.5% ( -0.02) 2-4 @ 1.12% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 1% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.25% Total : 37.14%