Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burgos win with a probability of 34.32%. A win for Lugo had a probability of 34.13% and a draw had a probability of 31.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Burgos win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (6.78%) and 1-2 (6.53%). The likeliest Lugo win was 1-0 (13.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (14.54%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.

Result
Lugo	Draw	Burgos
34.13% ( 0.06)	31.55% ( -0.13)	34.32% ( 0.07)

Both teams to score 38.26% (

0.31)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

30.37% (

0.35)

69.63% (

-0.35)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

13% (

0.23)

86.99% (

-0.22)

Lugo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.79% (

0.25)

38.21% (

-0.24)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.03% (

0.23)

74.97% (

-0.23)

Burgos Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.92% (

0.25)

38.08% (

-0.25)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.16% (

0.24)

74.84% (

-0.24)

Score Analysis

Lugo 34.12%

Burgos 34.31%

Draw 31.53%

Lugo	Draw	Burgos
1-0 @ 13.99% ( -0.09) 2-0 @ 6.73% ( 0) 2-1 @ 6.5% ( 0.05) 3-0 @ 2.16% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 2.09% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 1.01% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.65% Total : 34.12%	0-0 @ 14.54% ( -0.19) 1-1 @ 13.51% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 3.14% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.34% Total : 31.53%	0-1 @ 14.04% ( -0.09) 0-2 @ 6.78% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 6.53% ( 0.05) 0-3 @ 2.18% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 2.1% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 1.01% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.67% Total : 34.31%