Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Las Palmas win with a probability of 50.52%. A draw had a probability of 27.1% and a win for Lugo had a probability of 22.35%.
The most likely scoreline for a Las Palmas win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.47%) and 1-2 (8.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.45%), while for a Lugo win it was 1-0 (8.78%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 14.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Las Palmas in this match.