Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Zaragoza win with a probability of 49.37%. A draw had a probability of 28% and a win for Lugo had a probability of 22.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Zaragoza win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.43%) and 2-1 (8.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.62%), while for a Lugo win it was 0-1 (9.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood.