Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Zaragoza win with a probability of 56%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Lugo had a probability of 18.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Zaragoza win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.75%) and 2-1 (9.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.7%), while for a Lugo win it was 0-1 (7.5%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 15.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Real Zaragoza in this match.