Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lugo win with a probability of 38.23%. A win for Malaga had a probability of 33.83% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lugo win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.03%) and 2-0 (7.09%). The likeliest Malaga win was 0-1 (10.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.14%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Lugo in this match.