Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hearts win with a probability of 41.93%. A win for Motherwell had a probability of 32.91% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hearts win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.89%) and 2-0 (6.85%). The likeliest Motherwell win was 0-1 (7.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.87%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Hearts would win this match.
Result | ||
Hearts | Draw | Motherwell |
41.93% ( -0.27) | 25.16% ( 0.03) | 32.91% ( 0.25) |
Both teams to score 56.45% ( -0) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
52.97% ( -0.04) | 47.03% ( 0.04) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
30.73% ( -0.04) | 69.27% ( 0.04) |
Hearts Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.63% ( -0.15) | 22.36% ( 0.15) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
44.14% ( -0.22) | 55.86% ( 0.22) |
Motherwell Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.71% ( 0.13) | 27.29% ( -0.13) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
37.27% ( 0.17) | 62.73% ( -0.17) |
Score Analysis |
Hearts | Draw | Motherwell |
1-0 @ 9.14% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 8.89% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 6.85% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 4.44% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 3.42% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 2.88% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.66% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 1.28% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.08% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.3% Total : 41.93% | 1-1 @ 11.87% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 6.1% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.77% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.25% Other @ 0.17% Total : 25.16% | 0-1 @ 7.93% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 7.71% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 5.15% ( 0.05) 1-3 @ 3.34% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 2.5% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 2.23% ( 0.03) 1-4 @ 1.08% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.98% Total : 32.91% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Celtic | 15 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 44 | 4 | 40 | 43 |
2 | Aberdeen | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 30 | 18 | 12 | 34 |
3 | RangersRangers | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 9 | 18 | 32 |
4 | Dundee UnitedDundee Utd | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 22 | 15 | 7 | 24 |
5 | Motherwell | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 22 |
6 | Dundee | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 27 | 29 | -2 | 19 |
7 | St Mirren | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 18 |
8 | Ross County | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 30 | -18 | 15 |
9 | St Johnstone | 16 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 18 | 29 | -11 | 14 |
10 | Kilmarnock | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 34 | -17 | 14 |
11 | Hearts | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 13 |
12 | Hibernian | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 12 |
> Scottish Premiership Full Table |