UEFA Nations League

Nations League | League C

Oct 11, 2024 at 5pm UK

A. Le Coq Arena

Estonia
3 - 1
Azerbaijan

Jakovlev (32'), Sinyavskiy (45+2'), Robert Shein (71')
Robert Shein (37'), Anier (58')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Bayramov (45+1' pen.)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Nations League clash between Estonia and Azerbaijan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Estonia

All competitions

Nations League

Last Game: Sweden 3-0 Estonia
Sunday, September 8 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Current League C1 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Sweden	0	0	0
2	Estonia	0	0	0
3	Azerbaijan	0	0	0
4	Slovakia	0	0	0

Azerbaijan

All competitions

Nations League

Last Game: Slovakia 2-0 Azerbaijan
Sunday, September 8 at 5pm in Nations League

Current League C1 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Sweden	0	0	0
2	Estonia	0	0	0
3	Azerbaijan	0	0	0
4	Slovakia	0	0	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estonia win with a probability of 40.55%. A win for Azerbaijan had a probability of 34.16% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Estonia win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.73%) and 2-0 (6.61%). The likeliest Azerbaijan win was 0-1 (8.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.94%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Estonia would win this match.

Result
Estonia	Draw	Azerbaijan
40.55% ( -0.84)	25.3% ( -0.15)	34.16% ( 1)

Both teams to score 56.34% (

0.78)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.67% (

0.89)

47.34% (

-0.89)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.45% (

0.82)

69.56% (

-0.82)

Estonia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.83% (

-0.03)

23.18% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.94% (

-0.04)

57.06% (

0.05)

Azerbaijan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.33% (

1.05)

26.67% (

-1.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.08% (

1.36)

61.92% (

-1.35)

Score Analysis

Estonia 40.55%

Azerbaijan 34.16%

Draw 25.29%

Estonia	Draw	Azerbaijan
1-0 @ 9.04% ( -0.35) 2-1 @ 8.73% ( -0.08) 2-0 @ 6.61% ( -0.26) 3-1 @ 4.26% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 3.22% ( -0.13) 3-2 @ 2.81% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 1.56% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 1.18% ( -0.05) 4-2 @ 1.03% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.12% Total : 40.55%	1-1 @ 11.94% ( -0.1) 0-0 @ 6.18% ( -0.23) 2-2 @ 5.77% ( 0.11) 3-3 @ 1.24% ( 0.06) Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.29%	0-1 @ 8.17% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 7.89% ( 0.16) 0-2 @ 5.4% ( 0.12) 1-3 @ 3.48% ( 0.17) 2-3 @ 2.54% ( 0.12) 0-3 @ 2.38% ( 0.12) 1-4 @ 1.15% ( 0.09) Other @ 3.16% Total : 34.16%