UEFA Nations League

Nations League | League C

Sep 5, 2024 at 5pm UK

Tofiq Bahramov adina Respublika stadionu (Baki (Baku))

Azerbaijan
1 - 3
Sweden

Dadasov (82')
Dadasov (49'), Dzhenetov (79')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Isak (65', 71'), Gyokeres (80' pen.)
Wahlqvist (59'), Saletros (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Nations League clash between Azerbaijan and Sweden, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Azerbaijan

All competitions

Last Game: Azerbaijan 3-2 Kazakhstan
Tuesday, June 11 at 3pm in International Friendlies

Current Group F Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Belgium	8	18	20
2	Austria	8	10	19
3	Sweden	8	2	10
4	Azerbaijan	8	-10	7
5	Estonia	8	-20	1

Sweden

All competitions

Last Game: Sweden 0-3 Serbia
Saturday, June 8 at 5pm in International Friendlies

Current Group F Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Belgium	8	18	20
2	Austria	8	10	19
3	Sweden	8	2	10
4	Azerbaijan	8	-10	7
5	Estonia	8	-20	1

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Azerbaijan win with a probability of 51.96%. A win for Sweden had a probability of 24.93% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.

The most likely scoreline for an Azerbaijan win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.12%) and 2-0 (8.22%). The likeliest Sweden win was 1-2 (6.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.77%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Sweden would win this match.

Result
Azerbaijan	Draw	Sweden
51.96% ( 1.13)	23.12% ( -0.52)	24.93% ( -0.6)

Both teams to score 57.88% (

1.14)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.32% (

1.8)

42.67% (

-1.8)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

34.92% (

1.77)

65.08% (

-1.77)

Azerbaijan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.52% (

1.08)

16.47% (

-1.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.81% (

1.91)

46.19% (

-1.91)

Sweden Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.3% (

0.48)

30.7% (

-0.48)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.04% (

0.56)

66.96% (

-0.56)

Score Analysis

Azerbaijan 51.96%

Sweden 24.93%

Draw 23.12%

Azerbaijan	Draw	Sweden
2-1 @ 9.71% ( 0.06) 1-0 @ 9.12% ( -0.4) 2-0 @ 8.22% ( -0.06) 3-1 @ 5.84% ( 0.24) 3-0 @ 4.94% ( 0.14) 3-2 @ 3.45% ( 0.18) 4-1 @ 2.63% ( 0.2) 4-0 @ 2.23% ( 0.14) 4-2 @ 1.55% ( 0.14) 5-1 @ 0.95% ( 0.1) Other @ 3.31% Total : 51.96%	1-1 @ 10.77% ( -0.32) 2-2 @ 5.73% ( 0.11) 0-0 @ 5.06% ( -0.42) 3-3 @ 1.36% ( 0.09) Other @ 0.2% Total : 23.12%	1-2 @ 6.36% ( -0.11) 0-1 @ 5.97% ( -0.41) 0-2 @ 3.53% ( -0.19) 1-3 @ 2.5% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.26% ( 0.07) 0-3 @ 1.39% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.92% Total : 24.93%