Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Azerbaijan win with a probability of 60.27%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for Mongolia had a probability of 16.06%.
The most likely scoreline for an Azerbaijan win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.55%) and 2-1 (9.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.98%), while for a Mongolia win it was 0-1 (6.46%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Azerbaijan in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Azerbaijan.